Heilongjiang Daily News (Meng Qinghai's Hao Sun) Recently, a new forest Daxinganling 500 enterprises in China - Zijin Mining Group on mineral resources exploration, development and cooperation agreements reached and the signing ceremony held in the area.
After several rounds of field research, investigation, demonstration and consultation to discuss and reach a number of cooperation agreements: Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. of Northeast Asia and the New Forest on mineral resources exploration, development and entered into a collaboration; the company and the new Mining Investment Co., the global forest signed Kuhnhausen river rock gold exploration and development contracts, and Daxinganling Gold Mining Co., Ltd. signed a cooperative manner under investigation Galle River lead-zinc mine census, and reached Daxinganling ZTE Mining Co. Metal Ore Copper Gold and Silver comprehensive recovery the use of such cooperation.
2010年7月17日星期六
Zijin Mining to further postpone overseas acquisition
Zijin Mining (601 899) 7 announcement, said on May 6 this year, the company wholly owned subsidiary of Kim Yun-Mining (BVI) Limited announced that the tender offer Indophil Resources NL (hereinafter referred to as "Indophil") is valid from 5 in 2010 14 (Friday) 7 pm (Melbourne time) extended to 2010 7 月 9 日 (Friday) 7 pm (Melbourne time). Analysts worry about this, whether the company met with the foreign acquisition of a resistance.
In fact, as early as March 10, 2010, Kim Yun-Mining announced the acquisition of this offer is valid from Indophil at 19 o'clock on the March 19, 2010 be extended to at 19 o'clock on the April 16, 2010. It took nearly a month, Kim Yun-mining the tender offer period was extended for another month, until at 19 o'clock on the May 14, 2010.
As at 9 o'clock on May 6, 2010 (Melbourne time), Kim Yun-mining and its associates held by Indophil 29.81% interest [under the Australian Corporations Act 2001 (the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) definition].
As of this announcement, the tender offers have been Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board approval; Indophil has completed Alsons Corporation SMI3.27% interest held by the acquisition; Tampakan copper and gold project in the final feasibility study report has been completed and submitted to the Philippine Bureau of Mines and Geology.
In fact, as early as March 10, 2010, Kim Yun-Mining announced the acquisition of this offer is valid from Indophil at 19 o'clock on the March 19, 2010 be extended to at 19 o'clock on the April 16, 2010. It took nearly a month, Kim Yun-mining the tender offer period was extended for another month, until at 19 o'clock on the May 14, 2010.
As at 9 o'clock on May 6, 2010 (Melbourne time), Kim Yun-mining and its associates held by Indophil 29.81% interest [under the Australian Corporations Act 2001 (the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) definition].
As of this announcement, the tender offers have been Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board approval; Indophil has completed Alsons Corporation SMI3.27% interest held by the acquisition; Tampakan copper and gold project in the final feasibility study report has been completed and submitted to the Philippine Bureau of Mines and Geology.
Zijin Mining purchased 1.162 billion yuan of African copper-cobalt mine
Xinhua Beijing on May 8 Xinhua Zijin Mining (601 899) 8 announcement, the firm with the Africa Development Fund Co., Ltd. jointly established the project company, invested 284 million U.S. dollars (about 1.937 billion yuan) acquisition of Copperbelt Minerals Limited indirectly holds the Congo (DRC) Deziwa copper and cobalt mining projects and Ecaille C copper cobalt project. Africa Fund, the holding company and joint venture 60% and 40% of the shares, which invested 170 million U.S. dollars Zijin Mining (about 1.162 billion yuan). Set up joint venture will acquire a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zijin Mining 100% of the shares of Golden Delicious, Golden Delicious mining the specific implementation of the acquisition.
The acquisition is the subject for the Copper-belt held Platmin entire issued share capital and the Copperbelt 261 million accounts receivable within the Group. Platmin through its main assets registered in the Congo (DRC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Platmin Congo holds 68% stake SOMIDEC. The remaining 32% owned by the Congo (DRC) held the national mining company, the stake is not diluted.
SOMIDEC major asset for the project has Deziwa copper and cobalt mining cobalt ore copper Ecaille C 100% interest in the project.
The acquisition is the subject for the Copper-belt held Platmin entire issued share capital and the Copperbelt 261 million accounts receivable within the Group. Platmin through its main assets registered in the Congo (DRC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Platmin Congo holds 68% stake SOMIDEC. The remaining 32% owned by the Congo (DRC) held the national mining company, the stake is not diluted.
SOMIDEC major asset for the project has Deziwa copper and cobalt mining cobalt ore copper Ecaille C 100% interest in the project.
Zijin Mining issued A shares A shares opened 0.1 per precedent
According to Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 7 - Gold industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced on the 7th A share prospectus, to be not more than 15 million shares issued A shares. The offering of the company's A shares, par value per share of 0.1 yuan, which is in the A share offering in the history of the first.
Zijin Mining is the first overseas-listed gold producer, led principally engaged in gold mining industry, mineral resources, pollution of those toxic and mineral sales.
The company issued shares for the face value of 0.1 yuan per share, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies are 1 per share par value is different on this issue, industry experts believe that the issue of compliance with the law. Company Law stipulates that the 128th, the Company shall not be less than the par value (face value) the price of outstanding shares, issued at a discount that is not allowed, but must face value of 1 per requirement.
Experts pointed out that, in fact, only a nominal value of the stock units, multiplied with the face value, the number can be converted into equity shares of the number. Measure of shareholder control in the company (including voting rights) size, mainly depends on the number of shares and the resulting equity ratio has nothing to do with the stock face value. For investors, an 0.1 yuan face value of the stock, and an 1 per share par value is exactly the same, investors should be concerned about the major share of its net assets, earnings per share, compared with the price per share, and then make investment decisions without having to care about what share of net assets account for much of the share capital.
Zijin Mining is the first overseas-listed gold producer, led principally engaged in gold mining industry, mineral resources, pollution of those toxic and mineral sales.
The company issued shares for the face value of 0.1 yuan per share, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies are 1 per share par value is different on this issue, industry experts believe that the issue of compliance with the law. Company Law stipulates that the 128th, the Company shall not be less than the par value (face value) the price of outstanding shares, issued at a discount that is not allowed, but must face value of 1 per requirement.
Experts pointed out that, in fact, only a nominal value of the stock units, multiplied with the face value, the number can be converted into equity shares of the number. Measure of shareholder control in the company (including voting rights) size, mainly depends on the number of shares and the resulting equity ratio has nothing to do with the stock face value. For investors, an 0.1 yuan face value of the stock, and an 1 per share par value is exactly the same, investors should be concerned about the major share of its net assets, earnings per share, compared with the price per share, and then make investment decisions without having to care about what share of net assets account for much of the share capital.
Zijin Mining H shares rose more than 3% A shares closed up slightly
Been involved in environmental pollution incident in Zijin Mining (02899.HK) plunged yesterday after the shock today following the broader market higher, as of 11:35, shares up 3.27%; A shares, the stock stabilized meteoric rise to the session, closing slightly higher 0.52%.
As of yesterday's close, the company's stock fell 12.19% to close at 4.9 Hong Kong dollars. Some media reports, Vice President Liu Rongchun Zijin Mining said today that a clear cause of the accident investigation, the company will bear the corresponding liabilities accruing.
Yesterday, the ministry websites, the "green market on further verification of strict management system to enhance supervision of listed companies after the verification of environmental protection work," which called the jurisdiction of provincial environmental protection department urged listed companies publish annual environmental reports.
As of yesterday's close, the company's stock fell 12.19% to close at 4.9 Hong Kong dollars. Some media reports, Vice President Liu Rongchun Zijin Mining said today that a clear cause of the accident investigation, the company will bear the corresponding liabilities accruing.
Yesterday, the ministry websites, the "green market on further verification of strict management system to enhance supervision of listed companies after the verification of environmental protection work," which called the jurisdiction of provincial environmental protection department urged listed companies publish annual environmental reports.
Zijin Mining accidents worthy of reflection
Lasted for many days of wet plant in Fujian Zijin Mining Copper finally sewage leakage accident preliminary findings and treatment results. Some of them exposed to changes in local economic development approach is worthwhile in-depth reflection difficult.
Zijin Mining production has existed for many years in environmental issues, and whenever pollution incidents, rectification, accountability, compensation is often deliberately obscured the voices of and avoid. According to Deputy Mayor Liang Shanghang eight students revealed that as early as September 2009 the relevant departments will check found that Zijin Mining copper there Hongdong hidden wet plant row, and demanded rectification, but until this serious incident has not changed. This people can not help asking: regulators such inaction, in the end because of what?
The reason is not complicated. According to the survey, Shanghang County is one of Zijin Mining's major shareholder, the county fiscal revenue 50% to 60% of Zijin Mining. Although officials reminded before, a single local source of finance is very risky, but unfortunately, did not convert the local government ton output as pollution, changes in the way of economic development and as a determination. In this "prospering or declining, a loss for both sides" in the interests of the community, environmental regulation, "arm" How can the county finance twist too, "thigh"?
Mining production is a kind of great impact on the ecological environment of the industry, if the local government mired in fiscal, GDP growth of temptation, and the ecological, social costs Caiqu short-sighted and ignore the attitude, the consequences must be disastrous, decade the rise of inter-Xun Su The Zijin Mining is just a typical type of development. In recent years, mining and smelting around the numerous outbreaks of heavy metals pollution incidents, has led to the local ecological environment and people related to the interests of serious damage, is it not justify radical changes in attitudes and behavior What wrong?
With Hakka "Mother River," said the Tingjiang, because Zijin Mining pollution incidents suffered great ecological damage. Demolition of the current incident to Environmental Protection Bureau, Economic Secretary for the two officials are accountable for processing, and director of mines and other three persons responsible for criminal detention, public security organs have been on file for investigation leakage. Hope that the incident be thoroughly investigated and hope that other parts of warning, the real plant as Zijin Mining propaganda slogan says, to do "business, employees, and social development."
Zijin Mining production has existed for many years in environmental issues, and whenever pollution incidents, rectification, accountability, compensation is often deliberately obscured the voices of and avoid. According to Deputy Mayor Liang Shanghang eight students revealed that as early as September 2009 the relevant departments will check found that Zijin Mining copper there Hongdong hidden wet plant row, and demanded rectification, but until this serious incident has not changed. This people can not help asking: regulators such inaction, in the end because of what?
The reason is not complicated. According to the survey, Shanghang County is one of Zijin Mining's major shareholder, the county fiscal revenue 50% to 60% of Zijin Mining. Although officials reminded before, a single local source of finance is very risky, but unfortunately, did not convert the local government ton output as pollution, changes in the way of economic development and as a determination. In this "prospering or declining, a loss for both sides" in the interests of the community, environmental regulation, "arm" How can the county finance twist too, "thigh"?
Mining production is a kind of great impact on the ecological environment of the industry, if the local government mired in fiscal, GDP growth of temptation, and the ecological, social costs Caiqu short-sighted and ignore the attitude, the consequences must be disastrous, decade the rise of inter-Xun Su The Zijin Mining is just a typical type of development. In recent years, mining and smelting around the numerous outbreaks of heavy metals pollution incidents, has led to the local ecological environment and people related to the interests of serious damage, is it not justify radical changes in attitudes and behavior What wrong?
With Hakka "Mother River," said the Tingjiang, because Zijin Mining pollution incidents suffered great ecological damage. Demolition of the current incident to Environmental Protection Bureau, Economic Secretary for the two officials are accountable for processing, and director of mines and other three persons responsible for criminal detention, public security organs have been on file for investigation leakage. Hope that the incident be thoroughly investigated and hope that other parts of warning, the real plant as Zijin Mining propaganda slogan says, to do "business, employees, and social development."
2010年7月15日星期四
Rio Tinto Alcan smelter capacity Laterriere half
July 7, Rio Tinto Aluminium Canada (Rio Tinto Alcan) said that its aluminum smelter in Quebec Laterriere as a result of power failure, are running at half capacity.
The company said Tuesday that the smelter production severely disrupted after the failure of two power transformers, causing the plant does not have enough power to continue to operate at full capacity.
Laterriere smelter has been suspended a production line of production, half of the current capacity of 235,000 tons.
Company said no workers were injured in the accident, the accident is under investigation. The company hopes to resume suspended in the next few weeks, the production line.
The company said Tuesday that the smelter production severely disrupted after the failure of two power transformers, causing the plant does not have enough power to continue to operate at full capacity.
Laterriere smelter has been suspended a production line of production, half of the current capacity of 235,000 tons.
Company said no workers were injured in the accident, the accident is under investigation. The company hopes to resume suspended in the next few weeks, the production line.
Fuel switch to buying less Kuayue spread backwardation
Singapore on July 6, according to sources, the Asian fuel oil market held firm Tuesday, the spot in July / August Kuayue spread in more than five months since the first go against the spread, and two grades of fuel oil physical spread also go to the positive region.
Fuel oil crack spread remained at near two-month high, representing a premium for a second day of Dubai crude oil less than 5.00 U.S. dollars.
However, fixed-price contract volume declined in August due to buying less, only 75 thousand tons of transactions, the previous day was 22.5 million tons, the sale prices ranged between USD 428.50-429.75 per ton.
In July from the West into the East Asia arbitrage cargoes at 350-360 million tons, compared with nine months before the month's record high of 380-390 million tons of reduction of 8%. In August remained unchanged at 240-250 million tons.
Official data showed on June 30 in Singapore stocks ended the week steady at 2,190 million barrels, slightly down 8.8 million barrels.
7 / August swap spread is the spread from 0.50 U.S. dollars per ton to take the firm 0.13 U.S. dollars per ton against the spread.
8 / September swap spreads also take firm, positive spreads narrowed 1.00 to 0.75 U.S. dollars per ton.
In recent months, in August contract crack spread wide and 0.04 U.S. dollars go a little barrel of Dubai crude oil than the premium 4.64 U.S. dollars.
180-cst fuel oil rose 1.25 U.S. dollars to 429.13 U.S. dollars per ton .380-cst fuel oil rose 1.38 U.S. dollars to 420.88 U.S. dollars per ton.
Previous day price movements of oil prices
Spot 180CST fuel 429.00/429.25 427.88 +1.25
Spot 380CST fuel 420.75/421.00 419.50 +1.38
Singapore's marine fuel oil 423.00/426.00 421.00 +3.50
380CST premium marine fuel oil 1.50 2.13 3.43/3.83
Fuel oil crack spread remained at near two-month high, representing a premium for a second day of Dubai crude oil less than 5.00 U.S. dollars.
However, fixed-price contract volume declined in August due to buying less, only 75 thousand tons of transactions, the previous day was 22.5 million tons, the sale prices ranged between USD 428.50-429.75 per ton.
In July from the West into the East Asia arbitrage cargoes at 350-360 million tons, compared with nine months before the month's record high of 380-390 million tons of reduction of 8%. In August remained unchanged at 240-250 million tons.
Official data showed on June 30 in Singapore stocks ended the week steady at 2,190 million barrels, slightly down 8.8 million barrels.
7 / August swap spread is the spread from 0.50 U.S. dollars per ton to take the firm 0.13 U.S. dollars per ton against the spread.
8 / September swap spreads also take firm, positive spreads narrowed 1.00 to 0.75 U.S. dollars per ton.
In recent months, in August contract crack spread wide and 0.04 U.S. dollars go a little barrel of Dubai crude oil than the premium 4.64 U.S. dollars.
180-cst fuel oil rose 1.25 U.S. dollars to 429.13 U.S. dollars per ton .380-cst fuel oil rose 1.38 U.S. dollars to 420.88 U.S. dollars per ton.
Previous day price movements of oil prices
Spot 180CST fuel 429.00/429.25 427.88 +1.25
Spot 380CST fuel 420.75/421.00 419.50 +1.38
Singapore's marine fuel oil 423.00/426.00 421.00 +3.50
380CST premium marine fuel oil 1.50 2.13 3.43/3.83
The higher the resistance the greater the zinc market rebound
Zinc prices hit a year since the beginning of a new high and has been weakening, but rebounded in June in the metal has performed better, rebound momentum at the forefront of metal products. The reason why zinc prices rebound slightly ahead, the following main reasons: First, the callback in the process of pre-metal zinc prices had the largest decrease during zinc prices have rebounded a point advantage, which is the value investors that their depression or oversold; Second, in May the first zinc smelting enterprise maintenance shutdown; Third, zinc and consumption in Europe and America have maintained good momentum to drive the global zinc market to reduce the overall excess capacity; 4 euro oversold bounce, nearly a month of continuous adjustment of the dollar. The medium term, zinc prices, is still not optimistic, as the global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, zinc and seasonal off-season market in the downstream industry, the state canceled the export tax rebate, there is risk aversion and investor pressure to transfer the excess supply and strong Zinc prices will limit the height of rebound.
Maintenance shutdown in China to stimulate a strong rebound in zinc prices
Zinc consumption in China has gradually entered the seasonal off-season market, together with zinc processing fees from the 160-180 U.S. dollars / ton down to 90 U.S. dollars / ton, zinc smelting companies in China zinc prices fell below the industry average cost of line shutdown that followed maintenance initiatives, which in the rebound in zinc prices relatively strong performance, but the rebound height also depends on the intensity of cut.
In May, the domestic part of the zinc smelting enterprises have started shutdowns. It is understood that involves 40 different sizes of domestic smelting enterprises, the total operating rate of 85.6% from April dropped by 3 percentage points to 82.6%, in which idle capacity of 80,000 tons. At the same time, the current part of a large smelter in the north have begun to adjust production, estimated in June that these smelters cut a total of about 16,000 tons.
Reduce excess capacity in the first half, second half or a comeback
International Lead and Zinc Group (ILZSG) latest figures show that the global zinc market surplus increased from 259,000 tons last year dropped to 180,000 tons. Currently, the global zinc market showed a strong rebound in Europe and the United States of zinc consumption, while China's pattern of weak growth in zinc consumption. It is understood that China's refined zinc production in May rose 32%, an increase far higher than the global growth, domestic consumption growth over the same period was only 19%.
ILZSG data showed the West in April business inventories of zinc reached 9.782 million tons, of which the manufacturers of zinc inventory is 30.5 million tons, lower than March's 320,000 tons. Dominant global zinc stocks of zinc excess pressure has not shown there was a great relief. Currently, real estate regulation and control down, car sales are already showing signs of fatigue, Europe and the United States developed the real estate market downturn reproduction are exacerbated by the seasonal consumption of off-season pressure on zinc prices. Therefore, the excess pressure in the second half comeback zinc market is very likely.
The global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion
Currently, a number of economic data and international large-scale research studies have shown that the global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, since a result, real estate and automotive industries weakened demand for galvanized sheet. U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI fell 2 months straight; U.S. June ISM services sector index fell to 55.4 from the 53.8 in May; June non-farm employment declined by 12.5 million higher than estimated 11 million people.
China's economic restructuring, the domestic real estate transfer and credit control efforts continued unabated. China's June manufacturing PMI also fell to 52.1 for two consecutive months, suggesting that China's industrial expansion slowed. With the nation on the real estate sector continued to implement control policies, real estate investment is very likely to fall. In addition, exports will face in the third quarter fell, due to trade protectionism and Europe cut spending.
Expenditure cuts will drag the global economy
At present, European countries saddled with heavy debt, the second half of the intensity required to increase the cut public expenditure, which means exit strategies to accelerate economic growth will be strong enough to face the risk of endogenous, while zinc widely used in real estate, industrial manufacturing, delivery investment and transport and infrastructure construction.
Reduction of expenditure means that the negative effects of European debt crisis began to emerge: First, to ease the financial crisis, major economies have to cut expenditure, means that the economic recovery so far is still the main support of the economic stimulus had to quit early; Secondly, Financial constraints have led to declining public demand and high unemployment, deteriorating consumer sentiment combined to exacerbate the demand downturn, weak investment; Finally, sluggish domestic demand, trade protectionism and interactive, global trade will also be affected.
In short, the global economic recovery has slowed down a foregone conclusion, the European cut financial costs and economic transformation in China have increased the economic downturn. The world's largest consumer of zinc - the slowdown in demand for zinc to zinc price of a heavy blow. Maintenance shutdown of Chinese zinc producers in the context of unfavorable macroeconomic environment can play a supporting role, not enough to support the higher zinc prices back into the orbit, and thus the medium-term zinc price trend is still not optimistic.
Maintenance shutdown in China to stimulate a strong rebound in zinc prices
Zinc consumption in China has gradually entered the seasonal off-season market, together with zinc processing fees from the 160-180 U.S. dollars / ton down to 90 U.S. dollars / ton, zinc smelting companies in China zinc prices fell below the industry average cost of line shutdown that followed maintenance initiatives, which in the rebound in zinc prices relatively strong performance, but the rebound height also depends on the intensity of cut.
In May, the domestic part of the zinc smelting enterprises have started shutdowns. It is understood that involves 40 different sizes of domestic smelting enterprises, the total operating rate of 85.6% from April dropped by 3 percentage points to 82.6%, in which idle capacity of 80,000 tons. At the same time, the current part of a large smelter in the north have begun to adjust production, estimated in June that these smelters cut a total of about 16,000 tons.
Reduce excess capacity in the first half, second half or a comeback
International Lead and Zinc Group (ILZSG) latest figures show that the global zinc market surplus increased from 259,000 tons last year dropped to 180,000 tons. Currently, the global zinc market showed a strong rebound in Europe and the United States of zinc consumption, while China's pattern of weak growth in zinc consumption. It is understood that China's refined zinc production in May rose 32%, an increase far higher than the global growth, domestic consumption growth over the same period was only 19%.
ILZSG data showed the West in April business inventories of zinc reached 9.782 million tons, of which the manufacturers of zinc inventory is 30.5 million tons, lower than March's 320,000 tons. Dominant global zinc stocks of zinc excess pressure has not shown there was a great relief. Currently, real estate regulation and control down, car sales are already showing signs of fatigue, Europe and the United States developed the real estate market downturn reproduction are exacerbated by the seasonal consumption of off-season pressure on zinc prices. Therefore, the excess pressure in the second half comeback zinc market is very likely.
The global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion
Currently, a number of economic data and international large-scale research studies have shown that the global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, since a result, real estate and automotive industries weakened demand for galvanized sheet. U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI fell 2 months straight; U.S. June ISM services sector index fell to 55.4 from the 53.8 in May; June non-farm employment declined by 12.5 million higher than estimated 11 million people.
China's economic restructuring, the domestic real estate transfer and credit control efforts continued unabated. China's June manufacturing PMI also fell to 52.1 for two consecutive months, suggesting that China's industrial expansion slowed. With the nation on the real estate sector continued to implement control policies, real estate investment is very likely to fall. In addition, exports will face in the third quarter fell, due to trade protectionism and Europe cut spending.
Expenditure cuts will drag the global economy
At present, European countries saddled with heavy debt, the second half of the intensity required to increase the cut public expenditure, which means exit strategies to accelerate economic growth will be strong enough to face the risk of endogenous, while zinc widely used in real estate, industrial manufacturing, delivery investment and transport and infrastructure construction.
Reduction of expenditure means that the negative effects of European debt crisis began to emerge: First, to ease the financial crisis, major economies have to cut expenditure, means that the economic recovery so far is still the main support of the economic stimulus had to quit early; Secondly, Financial constraints have led to declining public demand and high unemployment, deteriorating consumer sentiment combined to exacerbate the demand downturn, weak investment; Finally, sluggish domestic demand, trade protectionism and interactive, global trade will also be affected.
In short, the global economic recovery has slowed down a foregone conclusion, the European cut financial costs and economic transformation in China have increased the economic downturn. The world's largest consumer of zinc - the slowdown in demand for zinc to zinc price of a heavy blow. Maintenance shutdown of Chinese zinc producers in the context of unfavorable macroeconomic environment can play a supporting role, not enough to support the higher zinc prices back into the orbit, and thus the medium-term zinc price trend is still not optimistic.
Metal futures to stocks will be the main theme of
The first half of this year, China's economy maintained a steady global recovery momentum, but the high cost of economic recovery, economic operation is not solid; economic growth is mainly driven by domestic investment, after the implementation of the stimulus increased the economic structural imbalances; exports Data performance is acceptable, but continuing is not optimistic.
September 2008, China's response to the crisis, the introduction of loose monetary policy. In the same year in November, the Government aims to expand domestic demand, "4 trillion economic stimulus package" and start the export tax rebates, VAT and other tax policy reforms. In the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, in 2009 China's economy achieved 8.7% growth, ahead of world economies. The first half of this year, China's economy is no longer a "second bottom," at risk, but there is also signs of overheating in the first quarter GDP growth up to 11.9%, imports and exports rose by 65% and 29%. Has released the latest data show that in May of domestic industrial added value increased 16.5%, 25.9% growth in fixed asset investment, retail sales of social consumer goods up 18.7%. This series of economic data in many ways close to or exceed the highest level, that has entered China's economy overheating warning area.
In our economy "thriving", domestic inflationary pressures gradually emerging, domestic demand and the irrational structure of foreign trade and environmental degradation will seriously affect the future sustainable economic development. So, to solve the policy side effect of irritating the second half of the government will be the focus of economic work. Looking in the second half, China's rapid economic growth will continue, but the structural adjustment is inevitable. "To prevent overheating, the gradual withdrawal" will be the second half of macroeconomic Aspect.
The second half of the State-led economic stimulus impact is still valid, the consumption, investment will continue, is expected to maintain the rapid growth of GDP, exports of restorative growth, contribution to the GDP, is expected to positive. However, the trend of economic growth, taking into account the low 2009, high economic growth after the characteristics of high economic growth this year in the first half of the second half of the growth rate will drop slightly throughout the year will show a high to the characteristics of low overall economic growth estimated at around 9.7%. Government may take "have to maintain pressure" strategy, "pressure" may be the credit and investment, "guarantee" may be consumption and export.
June 19, Bank of China advanced the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, which has been published in accordance with the foreign exchange market exchange rate floating range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and dynamic management and regulation. Market thus produced a strong appreciation of the renminbi expected, just two weeks, the appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar by 0.6%. In fact, the RMB appreciation is not in line with our core interests and demands, it also exists the possibility of devaluation, especially in the European, American and Japanese exports shrinking market, floating exchange rate for RMB Bianzhi is normal. Of course, this depends on the country's foreign trade strategy, arrangements and foreign exchange reserves game between the United States.
Since last year, stimulated by the concentration of policies, China's stock market, real estate market bubble rapidly, the risk to accumulate a sharp rise in social conflicts. Since the end of 2008, China's stock market bounce up from the bottom up to 91.7%, the major cities housing prices rose more than 50%, thus with that asset class of most commodity prices there doubled up. The first half of this year, the Government has made the stock market and housing market adjustment policy arrangements. Currently, the stock market is to foam, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the average price-earnings ratio has been about 20 times, this process is expected to be completed in the third quarter; Real Estate in effect becoming apparent. Strict policy of the government under the control of real estate price correction is inevitable, start as early as July. The final marked the end of its over-expansion foam extrusion to achieve real estate "soft landing." Therefore, this adjustment will be a long process, non-six months.
In addition, the European debt crisis on the adverse impact of China will appear in the second half. Since April a sharp deterioration since the debt crisis of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy's debt problems surfaced, hit the global market confidence, the crisis has spread to the full risk. Although the euro zone countries was 750 billion euros by emergency rescue plan, temporary relief from the crisis, but in Greece and other countries to propose and implement a credible fiscal reform before the hard to restore market confidence.
G20 in the just-concluded summit, the United States to continue to ask China to pay for the financial crisis, but basically no longer possible. Currently, the policy has been too lenient to our sustained economic growth and social development has brought many problems, our government will be based on the domestic and stabilize the main phase out, "steady fiscal, tight money" will be the direction of economic policy choices. Fiscal policy will remain the basis for the continuity of the gradual contraction. Amend existing investment plans, control of new investment projects, troubleshoot local government financing platform and investment risk is proof. Will continue to tighten monetary policy. The first half of the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio three times, and guidance through the window requires commercial banks to control credit growth is expected in the second half are likely to raise interest rates, the real start stimulus "Exit." By then, M1, M2 growth will continue to fall, to contain asset bubbles and inflation.
Based on the above view, the unilateral increase in 2009 as pattern will be difficult to repeat, with wide swings will be the second half of the main tone of the domestic futures market, specific to the varieties may vary.
Stock index futures, in the third quarter as a starting point, "Monkey City" features will be obvious. The third quarter, the stock market will continue to explore the end of the next, but less likely to new lows, then to follow the pace of macroeconomic moving. As the second half will not have excellent macroeconomic performance in the second half surge after the stock market correction in low probability. Will be based on speculation stock market sector rotation. Accordingly, the stock index futures will have similar performance, cross-period arbitrage opportunities are also on the frequency appears. Therefore, seize the opportunity-band operation, choose effective arbitrage strategies will be key strategies in the second half of stock index futures.
Metals futures, the inventory adjustment will be the main theme, "oscillation" is the second half of the basic price. By the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and financial contraction, steel and nonferrous metals to the inventory of face. In the second half, the relative consumption of the metals market will enter the low season, influenced by the fundamentals. If the oversupply situation is not resolved, could not come up quotes. Gold and foreign exchange, from the global asset allocation perspective, gold, dollar and the renminbi is an effective hedge assets, worth holding. Agricultural futures, the need to look more carefully. Affected by natural disasters, domestic agricultural production will be affected to some extent. Speculative funds will focus on agricultural products is much higher than other varieties, soybean, sugar, wheat, oil, represented by a wave of agricultural products is expected to rally in the second half, but the upside is not. Energy and chemical futures, and macro fundamentals will be closely followed up and down may be a stalemate situation.
September 2008, China's response to the crisis, the introduction of loose monetary policy. In the same year in November, the Government aims to expand domestic demand, "4 trillion economic stimulus package" and start the export tax rebates, VAT and other tax policy reforms. In the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, in 2009 China's economy achieved 8.7% growth, ahead of world economies. The first half of this year, China's economy is no longer a "second bottom," at risk, but there is also signs of overheating in the first quarter GDP growth up to 11.9%, imports and exports rose by 65% and 29%. Has released the latest data show that in May of domestic industrial added value increased 16.5%, 25.9% growth in fixed asset investment, retail sales of social consumer goods up 18.7%. This series of economic data in many ways close to or exceed the highest level, that has entered China's economy overheating warning area.
In our economy "thriving", domestic inflationary pressures gradually emerging, domestic demand and the irrational structure of foreign trade and environmental degradation will seriously affect the future sustainable economic development. So, to solve the policy side effect of irritating the second half of the government will be the focus of economic work. Looking in the second half, China's rapid economic growth will continue, but the structural adjustment is inevitable. "To prevent overheating, the gradual withdrawal" will be the second half of macroeconomic Aspect.
The second half of the State-led economic stimulus impact is still valid, the consumption, investment will continue, is expected to maintain the rapid growth of GDP, exports of restorative growth, contribution to the GDP, is expected to positive. However, the trend of economic growth, taking into account the low 2009, high economic growth after the characteristics of high economic growth this year in the first half of the second half of the growth rate will drop slightly throughout the year will show a high to the characteristics of low overall economic growth estimated at around 9.7%. Government may take "have to maintain pressure" strategy, "pressure" may be the credit and investment, "guarantee" may be consumption and export.
June 19, Bank of China advanced the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, which has been published in accordance with the foreign exchange market exchange rate floating range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and dynamic management and regulation. Market thus produced a strong appreciation of the renminbi expected, just two weeks, the appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar by 0.6%. In fact, the RMB appreciation is not in line with our core interests and demands, it also exists the possibility of devaluation, especially in the European, American and Japanese exports shrinking market, floating exchange rate for RMB Bianzhi is normal. Of course, this depends on the country's foreign trade strategy, arrangements and foreign exchange reserves game between the United States.
Since last year, stimulated by the concentration of policies, China's stock market, real estate market bubble rapidly, the risk to accumulate a sharp rise in social conflicts. Since the end of 2008, China's stock market bounce up from the bottom up to 91.7%, the major cities housing prices rose more than 50%, thus with that asset class of most commodity prices there doubled up. The first half of this year, the Government has made the stock market and housing market adjustment policy arrangements. Currently, the stock market is to foam, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the average price-earnings ratio has been about 20 times, this process is expected to be completed in the third quarter; Real Estate in effect becoming apparent. Strict policy of the government under the control of real estate price correction is inevitable, start as early as July. The final marked the end of its over-expansion foam extrusion to achieve real estate "soft landing." Therefore, this adjustment will be a long process, non-six months.
In addition, the European debt crisis on the adverse impact of China will appear in the second half. Since April a sharp deterioration since the debt crisis of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy's debt problems surfaced, hit the global market confidence, the crisis has spread to the full risk. Although the euro zone countries was 750 billion euros by emergency rescue plan, temporary relief from the crisis, but in Greece and other countries to propose and implement a credible fiscal reform before the hard to restore market confidence.
G20 in the just-concluded summit, the United States to continue to ask China to pay for the financial crisis, but basically no longer possible. Currently, the policy has been too lenient to our sustained economic growth and social development has brought many problems, our government will be based on the domestic and stabilize the main phase out, "steady fiscal, tight money" will be the direction of economic policy choices. Fiscal policy will remain the basis for the continuity of the gradual contraction. Amend existing investment plans, control of new investment projects, troubleshoot local government financing platform and investment risk is proof. Will continue to tighten monetary policy. The first half of the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio three times, and guidance through the window requires commercial banks to control credit growth is expected in the second half are likely to raise interest rates, the real start stimulus "Exit." By then, M1, M2 growth will continue to fall, to contain asset bubbles and inflation.
Based on the above view, the unilateral increase in 2009 as pattern will be difficult to repeat, with wide swings will be the second half of the main tone of the domestic futures market, specific to the varieties may vary.
Stock index futures, in the third quarter as a starting point, "Monkey City" features will be obvious. The third quarter, the stock market will continue to explore the end of the next, but less likely to new lows, then to follow the pace of macroeconomic moving. As the second half will not have excellent macroeconomic performance in the second half surge after the stock market correction in low probability. Will be based on speculation stock market sector rotation. Accordingly, the stock index futures will have similar performance, cross-period arbitrage opportunities are also on the frequency appears. Therefore, seize the opportunity-band operation, choose effective arbitrage strategies will be key strategies in the second half of stock index futures.
Metals futures, the inventory adjustment will be the main theme, "oscillation" is the second half of the basic price. By the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and financial contraction, steel and nonferrous metals to the inventory of face. In the second half, the relative consumption of the metals market will enter the low season, influenced by the fundamentals. If the oversupply situation is not resolved, could not come up quotes. Gold and foreign exchange, from the global asset allocation perspective, gold, dollar and the renminbi is an effective hedge assets, worth holding. Agricultural futures, the need to look more carefully. Affected by natural disasters, domestic agricultural production will be affected to some extent. Speculative funds will focus on agricultural products is much higher than other varieties, soybean, sugar, wheat, oil, represented by a wave of agricultural products is expected to rally in the second half, but the upside is not. Energy and chemical futures, and macro fundamentals will be closely followed up and down may be a stalemate situation.
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