Li Jun, the Shanghai Gold Exchange expert advisory members; Ho Chen, Department Director Lee asset investment, a typical representative of Public-private transfer. Yesterday, Chengdu Branch of China Everbright Bank to listen to organizations master lecture held in Chengdu, the two styles of talking heads appear on the podium.
Although the topic of conversation be different, but two of the confidence of the investment in the future. Jun Li convinced that gold will at least gain a further 10 years; Ho Chen argued that A shares expected to reproduce the systematic from 2006 to 2007, chances are unlikely, only to find institutional investors the opportunity.
RMB internationalization decision would increase gold
June 19, the central bank announced further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate. This is the market seen as an important step in the internationalization of RMB.
"Internationalization of the Renminbi, the gold will be doomed to rise." After a lapse of eight years, Li Jun Rong investors once again appear in front of his current status is the most important member of Shanghai Gold Exchange expert advisory.
Eight years ago, Li Jun debut in Chengdu, was closed to the media, "China's first exchange of God" title, then he that is a hot topic in foreign currency speculation. "RMB exchange has not changed, many people are keen on foreign exchange speculation," Li Jun said that after the exchange rate reform in 2005, foreign exchange investment has been very difficult to become investment hot spots, will be replaced by gold.
10 years ago, the international spot price of gold is more than 200 U.S. dollars an ounce; five years ago, is more than 400 U.S. dollars; today, is more than 1200 U.S. dollars. Li Jun said that participation in gold investment, in addition to the portfolio, especially for the needs of the market itself.
He pointed out that the internationalization of the yuan to become a reserve currency, and must be based on gold reserves. At present, about 1,100 tons of gold reserves, Li Jun said that he has senior people from the Shanghai Gold Exchange was informed, at least our gold reserves to 4,000 tons, to allow the RMB internationalization. This means that China's holdings of gold possible.
Not only that, including India, Russia, South Korea, and holdings of gold reserves, "between supply and demand will directly push gold higher." Li Jun said that the yuan could become an international currency in 2020, a hidden meaning behind this is that "Gold will rise at least 10 years."
The future of technology and private investment spending is key
Li Chun, passionate style and very different from Shanghai willy Asset Management and Chief Investment Officer, General Manager Ho Chen should be prudent lot. In his own words, "I am better than Li (Jun) teachers may be more rational."
Ho Chen said that China's economic growth model is from a resource-driven to innovation-driven change, which will determine the industry's long-term trends in resource allocation. Experienced a bull market years of 2006,2007, and 2008 after the crash, the stock market entered a period of adjustment.
Ho Chen said, A 股 market Yi did not have systematic opportunities, which are easily reproduced Bu Hui Du Shang Zhang Zhi Gupiao the criteria, and Zhihui You structural 机会, "They will exist in the technological innovation, consumer services."
2010, the Government stressed the need to focus on resolving employment, housing, social security, medical, public health, livelihood issues, to improve the residents quality of life. In the private equity fund, it seems, to guide the implementation of these policies will help eliminate the worries of the people to enhance their desire for consumption, "consumption growth in China will reproduce the history of Japan and Korea."
Ho Chen pointed out that the consumer is imminent in the people, the consumer valuation of listed companies are at historic lows, leaving sufficient for their living spaces, such as Suning Electric, Maotai, Haier, Tencent and other stocks.
Meanwhile, in the resource-driven to innovation-driven model transformation, the new energy industry, there are great investment opportunities, the building energy-saving materials, electric vehicles, smart Dian Wang, photovoltaic.
In yesterday's speech, as a private equity fund managers, not too much to talk about how shock index, he has passed his investment philosophy teams. He stressed four principles:
First, the target must have adequate margin of safety. This is the most important of all stock selection must comply with the conditions.
Second, we must make sure to identify the money, that is, the probability of the event bigger.
Third, as far as possible to shorten the waiting period profit, which is selected as the intervention point (wait catalyst appear).
Fourth, the systematic risk of the view that the head to avoid the large level, other levels of adjustment can be adjusted and shareholding position to reduce the risk of structural adjustment.
2010年8月2日星期一
China's manufacturing PMI data, but slowed down the expansion
China's official figures released Sunday, the Chinese expansion in manufacturing activity slowed in July, showed that earlier this year, China's tightening measures, as well as the increasing global demand, a situation of uncertainty tied to economic growth in China.
Much attention in the purchasing managers index (PMI) fell, that the Chinese Government is expected to continue easing in inflationary pressures in the case, later this year is unlikely to take any tough austerity measures. China's central bank last Tuesday gave an upbeat speech on the domestic economy, saying the current economic slowdown in China is conducive to long-term sustainable economic growth, the possibility of a secondary dip, small.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (referred to as CFLP) and China National Bureau of Statistics data released showed that in July purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 52.1 from 51.2 in June, fell for the third consecutive month, but the 17th consecutive month above 50 in this expansion and contraction.
CFLP Zhang Liqun, an analyst said in a bulletin, July PMI continue to decline, suggesting slower economic growth trend is emerging; current investment and export growth is not enough solid foundation.
Zhang Liqun expected in the future China's economy will gradually stabilize, economic growth in 2010 may be about 9.5%.
The data show that China's new export orders in July, but growth slowed, while imports decreased, suggesting the next few months will increase China's imports and exports continued to slow.
PMI index, new export orders index fell to 51.7 from 51.2 in June, imports index fell to 49.3 from 50.4.
China Customs will release in August 10 July trade data.
At the same time, as the purchasing price index fell to 50.4 from 51.3, inflationary pressures may have eased.
PMI 11 Category index, only one index in June rose compared with the remaining 10 index declined in June. Main index, the index rose employees, production index, new export orders index, import price index and the purchase index decreased.
July backlog of orders index, finished goods inventory index, import index, purchasing volume index and index of supplier delivery time of less than 50 critical point, the other index is higher than 50.
Much attention in the purchasing managers index (PMI) fell, that the Chinese Government is expected to continue easing in inflationary pressures in the case, later this year is unlikely to take any tough austerity measures. China's central bank last Tuesday gave an upbeat speech on the domestic economy, saying the current economic slowdown in China is conducive to long-term sustainable economic growth, the possibility of a secondary dip, small.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (referred to as CFLP) and China National Bureau of Statistics data released showed that in July purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 52.1 from 51.2 in June, fell for the third consecutive month, but the 17th consecutive month above 50 in this expansion and contraction.
CFLP Zhang Liqun, an analyst said in a bulletin, July PMI continue to decline, suggesting slower economic growth trend is emerging; current investment and export growth is not enough solid foundation.
Zhang Liqun expected in the future China's economy will gradually stabilize, economic growth in 2010 may be about 9.5%.
The data show that China's new export orders in July, but growth slowed, while imports decreased, suggesting the next few months will increase China's imports and exports continued to slow.
PMI index, new export orders index fell to 51.7 from 51.2 in June, imports index fell to 49.3 from 50.4.
China Customs will release in August 10 July trade data.
At the same time, as the purchasing price index fell to 50.4 from 51.3, inflationary pressures may have eased.
PMI 11 Category index, only one index in June rose compared with the remaining 10 index declined in June. Main index, the index rose employees, production index, new export orders index, import price index and the purchase index decreased.
July backlog of orders index, finished goods inventory index, import index, purchasing volume index and index of supplier delivery time of less than 50 critical point, the other index is higher than 50.
Fourth set of RMB 50 yuan mad surge of 80 sold for 2,350 yuan Edition
Ups and downs, after more than 10 years, notes the market once again usher in the "big boom" era. Which has not been out of circulation for the fourth series of the renminbi, because the central bank has ceased to be the hot issue of speculation "theme." Recently, one of the largest markets in Shanghai Luwan You Bika worker culture philatelic exchange market, in which circulation of less version of 50 yuan in 1980, notes, had risen to 2,350 yuan.
"Crazy," the renminbi
"8050" six months surged nearly doubled
Shanghai Luwan Workers Cultural Palace (hereinafter: Lu work market) have hundreds of owners, their "professional" segment is more obvious - some people only do stamps, some people only do the third series of the renminbi, and now more people to participate to speculation in the fourth series of the renminbi.
【Order】
Merchant to do business running
Market, the total number of transactions to see people doing with running the way forward transactions. A shopkeeper in 10 minutes can be received 78 calls, each saying something in a hurry to hang, and even have no time to chat with acquaintances. All these changes occurred in the fourth set of RMB will be in focus after. In the past, many owners did to the 4:30 closing time, it has already got off work early.
"Lu is now a hot market work is the fourth set and second set of the yuan, all concerns are here." A shopkeeper said, "the fourth series of the renminbi to 'walk Yang Xian' has now been more than a year, in particular, the past six months rise very quickly. "
【Price】
Fourth double the average inflation
According to the effective control data, the fourth edition of RMB 50 yuan in 1980 (hereinafter: 8050), due to less circulation, the time in 2007 had risen to 700 yuan, this pattern began in 2009 until changes occur. By 2010, Lu workers from market transactions to see every day, beginning in January 8050 in the transaction price is 1250 yuan to 1900 yuan rose 2 months late, early in March after a slight drop (1850 dollars), to April and suddenly pulled up to 2350 yuan; then a few months has been the "correction" to the mid-July, prices at between 2250-2350.
Hot spots in 8050, while the market speculation, the fourth edition of RMB 50 yuan in 1990 (hereinafter: 9050) was followed led, in January this year, 60 yuan, rose to 155 after the top half.
In addition, in the fourth set of RMB 2 yuan in 1980, has risen from a nominal value of 30 yuan, which is almost half a year in value doubles.
If the time from the farther point of view, 1980, 5 yuan, in 2007 in appreciation of the time 3 times. In addition to the current 0.5 yuan in 1980 version still in circulation, the fourth rise in the renminbi You Bika market an average of 1 times. Time mainly from the start of 2009 began monthly rise this year to expand, but these months are correction.
"Helplessness" of the regulatory
Ban the sale of money in circulation and hard to stop
Whether the suspected illegal sale of RMB? This, the central bank, told reporters that the persons concerned are in accordance with the "yuan regulations" to carry out supervision.
"Crazy," the renminbi
"8050" six months surged nearly doubled
Shanghai Luwan Workers Cultural Palace (hereinafter: Lu work market) have hundreds of owners, their "professional" segment is more obvious - some people only do stamps, some people only do the third series of the renminbi, and now more people to participate to speculation in the fourth series of the renminbi.
【Order】
Merchant to do business running
Market, the total number of transactions to see people doing with running the way forward transactions. A shopkeeper in 10 minutes can be received 78 calls, each saying something in a hurry to hang, and even have no time to chat with acquaintances. All these changes occurred in the fourth set of RMB will be in focus after. In the past, many owners did to the 4:30 closing time, it has already got off work early.
"Lu is now a hot market work is the fourth set and second set of the yuan, all concerns are here." A shopkeeper said, "the fourth series of the renminbi to 'walk Yang Xian' has now been more than a year, in particular, the past six months rise very quickly. "
【Price】
Fourth double the average inflation
According to the effective control data, the fourth edition of RMB 50 yuan in 1980 (hereinafter: 8050), due to less circulation, the time in 2007 had risen to 700 yuan, this pattern began in 2009 until changes occur. By 2010, Lu workers from market transactions to see every day, beginning in January 8050 in the transaction price is 1250 yuan to 1900 yuan rose 2 months late, early in March after a slight drop (1850 dollars), to April and suddenly pulled up to 2350 yuan; then a few months has been the "correction" to the mid-July, prices at between 2250-2350.
Hot spots in 8050, while the market speculation, the fourth edition of RMB 50 yuan in 1990 (hereinafter: 9050) was followed led, in January this year, 60 yuan, rose to 155 after the top half.
In addition, in the fourth set of RMB 2 yuan in 1980, has risen from a nominal value of 30 yuan, which is almost half a year in value doubles.
If the time from the farther point of view, 1980, 5 yuan, in 2007 in appreciation of the time 3 times. In addition to the current 0.5 yuan in 1980 version still in circulation, the fourth rise in the renminbi You Bika market an average of 1 times. Time mainly from the start of 2009 began monthly rise this year to expand, but these months are correction.
"Helplessness" of the regulatory
Ban the sale of money in circulation and hard to stop
Whether the suspected illegal sale of RMB? This, the central bank, told reporters that the persons concerned are in accordance with the "yuan regulations" to carry out supervision.
Tianjin speculators shot empty treasury to buy 11 million yuan to buy 40 kilograms of gold bars
"This year, gold prices may reach 1,350 U.S. dollars an ounce," a number of international investment institutions on the future direction of gold prices gives optimism. Gold fell slightly yesterday, a public on the decisive shot, suddenly put more than 1100 million, from the China Construction Bank to buy nearly 40 kilograms of gold bullion investment. Banks say it is probably the largest city appeared pay for physical gold.
The morning was suddenly bought nearly 40 kilograms of gold bullion investment, spent a total of more than 1100 million. "Yesterday, the city CCB told reporters," This is probably the biggest city at the current physical gold trading. "
According to its introduction, the buyer is a private company boss. "About a month ago, we introduced financial products to the customers, end customers selected gold. After some time, customers may observe changes in gold prices, it could be to raise funds. Last week customers find me, that is ready to buy investment bullion, so we began to prepare. The day before yesterday I found the clients that buy about 6 million yuan investment in gold bars. "he said.
But yesterday morning the real time of purchase, the buyer bought more than 1100 million once the gold bars, than the day before the booking number has almost doubled. "Customers are optimistic about the future trend of gold. Day of gold is also used to date more than 288 yuan per gram, down to 282.5 yuan per gram, bullion prices more affordable." CCB sources, "he said to our existing investment in gold bullion have bought a total of 200 roots. One of the biggest gold bars 500 grams 1, bought 34; least 50 grams of a gold bullion, buying the 85, there are also 200 grams of 1 and 100 g 1. It is because too much to buy gold bars, gold bars of different sizes is the same one gram gold, buy gold bars, customers do not care about the specifications of the. "
The buyer of the gold bar in the selected after the CCB with a paid account bank card credit card, so this nearly 40 kilograms of gold bars under the name of the official income. Bank was issued a one physical gold buyers on behalf of custody certificate, the certificate records the customer time to buy gold bullion prices, gold bars of various specifications of the purchase quantity. "Customers do not withdraw the spot gold bars, but choose the bank on behalf of custody. The future, customers can use this certificate on behalf of custody of bullion withdrawal can also be gold bullion buy-back profits." He said, "we can now buy physical gold and custody services on behalf of investors, the first year of the service is free of charge. This eliminates the need for extraction and storage customers the trouble of gold. "
According to China Construction Bank to introduce: "The customer was in 2008 when it bought gold bullion investment. At that time gold is still relatively low, only about more than 190 yuan per gram, the customer once bought 200 million of gold bullion. This Back to the customer has bought more than 1100 million in gold bullion, nor ask us about the buyback procedure, estimated to be intended to hold a long-term. "
Reporter estimated that, if in accordance with the price of 282.5 yuan per gram to buy 40 kilograms of gold bars, a total of 11.3 million yuan needed. The current international price of gold is about 1,240 U.S. dollars an ounce, assuming that the international gold market this year expected to reach 1,350 U.S. dollars an ounce, the buyers almost can net several hundred thousand dollars. In 2008, he bought more than 200 million gold bullion has been held, if present, has earned more than 80 million.
The morning was suddenly bought nearly 40 kilograms of gold bullion investment, spent a total of more than 1100 million. "Yesterday, the city CCB told reporters," This is probably the biggest city at the current physical gold trading. "
According to its introduction, the buyer is a private company boss. "About a month ago, we introduced financial products to the customers, end customers selected gold. After some time, customers may observe changes in gold prices, it could be to raise funds. Last week customers find me, that is ready to buy investment bullion, so we began to prepare. The day before yesterday I found the clients that buy about 6 million yuan investment in gold bars. "he said.
But yesterday morning the real time of purchase, the buyer bought more than 1100 million once the gold bars, than the day before the booking number has almost doubled. "Customers are optimistic about the future trend of gold. Day of gold is also used to date more than 288 yuan per gram, down to 282.5 yuan per gram, bullion prices more affordable." CCB sources, "he said to our existing investment in gold bullion have bought a total of 200 roots. One of the biggest gold bars 500 grams 1, bought 34; least 50 grams of a gold bullion, buying the 85, there are also 200 grams of 1 and 100 g 1. It is because too much to buy gold bars, gold bars of different sizes is the same one gram gold, buy gold bars, customers do not care about the specifications of the. "
The buyer of the gold bar in the selected after the CCB with a paid account bank card credit card, so this nearly 40 kilograms of gold bars under the name of the official income. Bank was issued a one physical gold buyers on behalf of custody certificate, the certificate records the customer time to buy gold bullion prices, gold bars of various specifications of the purchase quantity. "Customers do not withdraw the spot gold bars, but choose the bank on behalf of custody. The future, customers can use this certificate on behalf of custody of bullion withdrawal can also be gold bullion buy-back profits." He said, "we can now buy physical gold and custody services on behalf of investors, the first year of the service is free of charge. This eliminates the need for extraction and storage customers the trouble of gold. "
According to China Construction Bank to introduce: "The customer was in 2008 when it bought gold bullion investment. At that time gold is still relatively low, only about more than 190 yuan per gram, the customer once bought 200 million of gold bullion. This Back to the customer has bought more than 1100 million in gold bullion, nor ask us about the buyback procedure, estimated to be intended to hold a long-term. "
Reporter estimated that, if in accordance with the price of 282.5 yuan per gram to buy 40 kilograms of gold bars, a total of 11.3 million yuan needed. The current international price of gold is about 1,240 U.S. dollars an ounce, assuming that the international gold market this year expected to reach 1,350 U.S. dollars an ounce, the buyers almost can net several hundred thousand dollars. In 2008, he bought more than 200 million gold bullion has been held, if present, has earned more than 80 million.
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