2010年7月15日星期四

Rio Tinto Alcan smelter capacity Laterriere half

July 7, Rio Tinto Aluminium Canada (Rio Tinto Alcan) said that its aluminum smelter in Quebec Laterriere as a result of power failure, are running at half capacity.


The company said Tuesday that the smelter production severely disrupted after the failure of two power transformers, causing the plant does not have enough power to continue to operate at full capacity.

Laterriere smelter has been suspended a production line of production, half of the current capacity of 235,000 tons.

Company said no workers were injured in the accident, the accident is under investigation. The company hopes to resume suspended in the next few weeks, the production line.

Fuel switch to buying less Kuayue spread backwardation

Singapore on July 6, according to sources, the Asian fuel oil market held firm Tuesday, the spot in July / August Kuayue spread in more than five months since the first go against the spread, and two grades of fuel oil physical spread also go to the positive region.

Fuel oil crack spread remained at near two-month high, representing a premium for a second day of Dubai crude oil less than 5.00 U.S. dollars.

However, fixed-price contract volume declined in August due to buying less, only 75 thousand tons of transactions, the previous day was 22.5 million tons, the sale prices ranged between USD 428.50-429.75 per ton.

In July from the West into the East Asia arbitrage cargoes at 350-360 million tons, compared with nine months before the month's record high of 380-390 million tons of reduction of 8%. In August remained unchanged at 240-250 million tons.

Official data showed on June 30 in Singapore stocks ended the week steady at 2,190 million barrels, slightly down 8.8 million barrels.

7 / August swap spread is the spread from 0.50 U.S. dollars per ton to take the firm 0.13 U.S. dollars per ton against the spread.

8 / September swap spreads also take firm, positive spreads narrowed 1.00 to 0.75 U.S. dollars per ton.

In recent months, in August contract crack spread wide and 0.04 U.S. dollars go a little barrel of Dubai crude oil than the premium 4.64 U.S. dollars.

180-cst fuel oil rose 1.25 U.S. dollars to 429.13 U.S. dollars per ton .380-cst fuel oil rose 1.38 U.S. dollars to 420.88 U.S. dollars per ton.

Previous day price movements of oil prices

Spot 180CST fuel 429.00/429.25 427.88 +1.25

Spot 380CST fuel 420.75/421.00 419.50 +1.38

Singapore's marine fuel oil 423.00/426.00 421.00 +3.50

380CST premium marine fuel oil 1.50 2.13 3.43/3.83

The higher the resistance the greater the zinc market rebound

Zinc prices hit a year since the beginning of a new high and has been weakening, but rebounded in June in the metal has performed better, rebound momentum at the forefront of metal products. The reason why zinc prices rebound slightly ahead, the following main reasons: First, the callback in the process of pre-metal zinc prices had the largest decrease during zinc prices have rebounded a point advantage, which is the value investors that their depression or oversold; Second, in May the first zinc smelting enterprise maintenance shutdown; Third, zinc and consumption in Europe and America have maintained good momentum to drive the global zinc market to reduce the overall excess capacity; 4 euro oversold bounce, nearly a month of continuous adjustment of the dollar. The medium term, zinc prices, is still not optimistic, as the global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, zinc and seasonal off-season market in the downstream industry, the state canceled the export tax rebate, there is risk aversion and investor pressure to transfer the excess supply and strong Zinc prices will limit the height of rebound.


Maintenance shutdown in China to stimulate a strong rebound in zinc prices

Zinc consumption in China has gradually entered the seasonal off-season market, together with zinc processing fees from the 160-180 U.S. dollars / ton down to 90 U.S. dollars / ton, zinc smelting companies in China zinc prices fell below the industry average cost of line shutdown that followed maintenance initiatives, which in the rebound in zinc prices relatively strong performance, but the rebound height also depends on the intensity of cut.

In May, the domestic part of the zinc smelting enterprises have started shutdowns. It is understood that involves 40 different sizes of domestic smelting enterprises, the total operating rate of 85.6% from April dropped by 3 percentage points to 82.6%, in which idle capacity of 80,000 tons. At the same time, the current part of a large smelter in the north have begun to adjust production, estimated in June that these smelters cut a total of about 16,000 tons.

Reduce excess capacity in the first half, second half or a comeback

International Lead and Zinc Group (ILZSG) latest figures show that the global zinc market surplus increased from 259,000 tons last year dropped to 180,000 tons. Currently, the global zinc market showed a strong rebound in Europe and the United States of zinc consumption, while China's pattern of weak growth in zinc consumption. It is understood that China's refined zinc production in May rose 32%, an increase far higher than the global growth, domestic consumption growth over the same period was only 19%.

ILZSG data showed the West in April business inventories of zinc reached 9.782 million tons, of which the manufacturers of zinc inventory is 30.5 million tons, lower than March's 320,000 tons. Dominant global zinc stocks of zinc excess pressure has not shown there was a great relief. Currently, real estate regulation and control down, car sales are already showing signs of fatigue, Europe and the United States developed the real estate market downturn reproduction are exacerbated by the seasonal consumption of off-season pressure on zinc prices. Therefore, the excess pressure in the second half comeback zinc market is very likely.

The global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion

Currently, a number of economic data and international large-scale research studies have shown that the global economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, since a result, real estate and automotive industries weakened demand for galvanized sheet. U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI fell 2 months straight; U.S. June ISM services sector index fell to 55.4 from the 53.8 in May; June non-farm employment declined by 12.5 million higher than estimated 11 million people.

China's economic restructuring, the domestic real estate transfer and credit control efforts continued unabated. China's June manufacturing PMI also fell to 52.1 for two consecutive months, suggesting that China's industrial expansion slowed. With the nation on the real estate sector continued to implement control policies, real estate investment is very likely to fall. In addition, exports will face in the third quarter fell, due to trade protectionism and Europe cut spending.

Expenditure cuts will drag the global economy

At present, European countries saddled with heavy debt, the second half of the intensity required to increase the cut public expenditure, which means exit strategies to accelerate economic growth will be strong enough to face the risk of endogenous, while zinc widely used in real estate, industrial manufacturing, delivery investment and transport and infrastructure construction.

Reduction of expenditure means that the negative effects of European debt crisis began to emerge: First, to ease the financial crisis, major economies have to cut expenditure, means that the economic recovery so far is still the main support of the economic stimulus had to quit early; Secondly, Financial constraints have led to declining public demand and high unemployment, deteriorating consumer sentiment combined to exacerbate the demand downturn, weak investment; Finally, sluggish domestic demand, trade protectionism and interactive, global trade will also be affected.

In short, the global economic recovery has slowed down a foregone conclusion, the European cut financial costs and economic transformation in China have increased the economic downturn. The world's largest consumer of zinc - the slowdown in demand for zinc to zinc price of a heavy blow. Maintenance shutdown of Chinese zinc producers in the context of unfavorable macroeconomic environment can play a supporting role, not enough to support the higher zinc prices back into the orbit, and thus the medium-term zinc price trend is still not optimistic.

Metal futures to stocks will be the main theme of

The first half of this year, China's economy maintained a steady global recovery momentum, but the high cost of economic recovery, economic operation is not solid; economic growth is mainly driven by domestic investment, after the implementation of the stimulus increased the economic structural imbalances; exports Data performance is acceptable, but continuing is not optimistic.


September 2008, China's response to the crisis, the introduction of loose monetary policy. In the same year in November, the Government aims to expand domestic demand, "4 trillion economic stimulus package" and start the export tax rebates, VAT and other tax policy reforms. In the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, in 2009 China's economy achieved 8.7% growth, ahead of world economies. The first half of this year, China's economy is no longer a "second bottom," at risk, but there is also signs of overheating in the first quarter GDP growth up to 11.9%, imports and exports rose by 65% and 29%. Has released the latest data show that in May of domestic industrial added value increased 16.5%, 25.9% growth in fixed asset investment, retail sales of social consumer goods up 18.7%. This series of economic data in many ways close to or exceed the highest level, that has entered China's economy overheating warning area.

In our economy "thriving", domestic inflationary pressures gradually emerging, domestic demand and the irrational structure of foreign trade and environmental degradation will seriously affect the future sustainable economic development. So, to solve the policy side effect of irritating the second half of the government will be the focus of economic work. Looking in the second half, China's rapid economic growth will continue, but the structural adjustment is inevitable. "To prevent overheating, the gradual withdrawal" will be the second half of macroeconomic Aspect.

The second half of the State-led economic stimulus impact is still valid, the consumption, investment will continue, is expected to maintain the rapid growth of GDP, exports of restorative growth, contribution to the GDP, is expected to positive. However, the trend of economic growth, taking into account the low 2009, high economic growth after the characteristics of high economic growth this year in the first half of the second half of the growth rate will drop slightly throughout the year will show a high to the characteristics of low overall economic growth estimated at around 9.7%. Government may take "have to maintain pressure" strategy, "pressure" may be the credit and investment, "guarantee" may be consumption and export.

June 19, Bank of China advanced the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, which has been published in accordance with the foreign exchange market exchange rate floating range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and dynamic management and regulation. Market thus produced a strong appreciation of the renminbi expected, just two weeks, the appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar by 0.6%. In fact, the RMB appreciation is not in line with our core interests and demands, it also exists the possibility of devaluation, especially in the European, American and Japanese exports shrinking market, floating exchange rate for RMB Bianzhi is normal. Of course, this depends on the country's foreign trade strategy, arrangements and foreign exchange reserves game between the United States.

Since last year, stimulated by the concentration of policies, China's stock market, real estate market bubble rapidly, the risk to accumulate a sharp rise in social conflicts. Since the end of 2008, China's stock market bounce up from the bottom up to 91.7%, the major cities housing prices rose more than 50%, thus with that asset class of most commodity prices there doubled up. The first half of this year, the Government has made the stock market and housing market adjustment policy arrangements. Currently, the stock market is to foam, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the average price-earnings ratio has been about 20 times, this process is expected to be completed in the third quarter; Real Estate in effect becoming apparent. Strict policy of the government under the control of real estate price correction is inevitable, start as early as July. The final marked the end of its over-expansion foam extrusion to achieve real estate "soft landing." Therefore, this adjustment will be a long process, non-six months.

In addition, the European debt crisis on the adverse impact of China will appear in the second half. Since April a sharp deterioration since the debt crisis of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy's debt problems surfaced, hit the global market confidence, the crisis has spread to the full risk. Although the euro zone countries was 750 billion euros by emergency rescue plan, temporary relief from the crisis, but in Greece and other countries to propose and implement a credible fiscal reform before the hard to restore market confidence.

G20 in the just-concluded summit, the United States to continue to ask China to pay for the financial crisis, but basically no longer possible. Currently, the policy has been too lenient to our sustained economic growth and social development has brought many problems, our government will be based on the domestic and stabilize the main phase out, "steady fiscal, tight money" will be the direction of economic policy choices. Fiscal policy will remain the basis for the continuity of the gradual contraction. Amend existing investment plans, control of new investment projects, troubleshoot local government financing platform and investment risk is proof. Will continue to tighten monetary policy. The first half of the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio three times, and guidance through the window requires commercial banks to control credit growth is expected in the second half are likely to raise interest rates, the real start stimulus "Exit." By then, M1, M2 growth will continue to fall, to contain asset bubbles and inflation.

Based on the above view, the unilateral increase in 2009 as pattern will be difficult to repeat, with wide swings will be the second half of the main tone of the domestic futures market, specific to the varieties may vary.

Stock index futures, in the third quarter as a starting point, "Monkey City" features will be obvious. The third quarter, the stock market will continue to explore the end of the next, but less likely to new lows, then to follow the pace of macroeconomic moving. As the second half will not have excellent macroeconomic performance in the second half surge after the stock market correction in low probability. Will be based on speculation stock market sector rotation. Accordingly, the stock index futures will have similar performance, cross-period arbitrage opportunities are also on the frequency appears. Therefore, seize the opportunity-band operation, choose effective arbitrage strategies will be key strategies in the second half of stock index futures.

Metals futures, the inventory adjustment will be the main theme, "oscillation" is the second half of the basic price. By the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and financial contraction, steel and nonferrous metals to the inventory of face. In the second half, the relative consumption of the metals market will enter the low season, influenced by the fundamentals. If the oversupply situation is not resolved, could not come up quotes. Gold and foreign exchange, from the global asset allocation perspective, gold, dollar and the renminbi is an effective hedge assets, worth holding. Agricultural futures, the need to look more carefully. Affected by natural disasters, domestic agricultural production will be affected to some extent. Speculative funds will focus on agricultural products is much higher than other varieties, soybean, sugar, wheat, oil, represented by a wave of agricultural products is expected to rally in the second half, but the upside is not. Energy and chemical futures, and macro fundamentals will be closely followed up and down may be a stalemate situation.

Anshan Iron and Steel will stick to investment plans U.S. Steel plant

China Iron and Steel Company Anshan Iron and Steel Group Corporation (Anshan Iron and Steel Group Corp., Referred to as: Anshan Iron and Steel Group) senior management Wednesday said the company did not intend to cancel a joint venture of U.S. Steel's investment, although some U.S. congressmen asked the Government to investigate the project .

Zhang, general manager of Anshan Iron and Steel Group, told Dow Jones Newswires (Dow Jones Newswires) interview, said the company believed the United States is a highly mature market economies. He believes that the investigation will not be possible on the investment, including investment in the future have any impact. He added that the company's commitment to the project investment is only about 700 million.

The fourth largest steel company in an awkward position, because the United States before the 50 members of Congress steel line (Congressional Steel Caucus) on the last Friday wrote to the Treasury secretary (Timothy Geithner), asked the U.S. Overseas Investment Commission ( Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States) Investigation Group and Angang Steel Development Co.'s joint venture plan. These members said they are worried that a U.S. steel company, foreign direct investment would threaten U.S. jobs and national security.

This year in May, Anshan Iron and Steel Development Group said it planned to invest in steel plant in Mississippi Armory, as overseas expansion and direct marketing products in the United States part of the strategy.

Zhang gap in a New York conference, said U.S. lawmakers a letter addressed to Timothy Geithner him a little by surprise, because the company is the project's small shareholders, not involving the joint venture management. He did not understand why they will this investment and national security, or access to new technologies linked.

He added that a further decision on the Mississippi investment will depend on how this development. He said the U.S. Treasury Department has not yet responded to this letter.

He said that due to the small amount of investment, the U.S. government will not even respond. In his view, the economic nature of the problem should be treated as economic issues only, and not doped to the politics.

He said he had not, and joint venture partners in the United States about this letter, but not prepared to discuss the matter Wednesday. He is scheduled Wednesday afternoon to fly back to China.

Steel Development said, because the process of financing for the plant in Anshan Iron and Steel Group, received the investment, it has become a target of public criticism. It said the steel plant will create 1,200 construction jobs and 100 permanent jobs. The company spokesman said Tuesday, Anshan Iron and Steel Group's investment in total investment amount less than 20%. The steel plant planned for production this year.

But at the same time, the U.S. largest steel production company Nucor Corp. (NUE) in charge Wednesday issued a written statement in support of the Government to investigate the investment Anshan Iron and Steel Group.

Copper prices rebounded down under pressure from the focus

Copper to maintain the recent pattern of weak order, the global macroeconomic uncertainty is the main reason for restricting high copper prices rebounded. Since April, copper prices in the euro zone under the impact of the debt crisis out of a significant downturn in the market, the domestic Shanghai copper near the minimum dropping as 49,000 yuan, followed by a rebound in another encounter, the U.S. macro data between the two countries to slow down again around 50,000 yuan, under pressure from short-term market rally.


Recent macroeconomic data released by the United States, against market expectations for U.S. economic optimism. U.S. June consumer confidence index falling sharply, a change for 3 months prior to the rising trend, the real estate market, employment, automotive market downturn is the main reason causing the decline in consumer confidence; the United States in June the unemployment rate from last month 9.7% to 9.5%, which is the last year, the lowest level since July, but the June non-farm employment fell more than expected, is employed by the U.S. Census due to a large number of temporary workers, when the post removed, they appear large size of the unemployed, the U.S. job market is still an important part of the U.S. economy constraints.

Real estate market will enable the market pessimism, the United States in May into a house, all the sharp drop in new home sales, new home sales dropped to its lowest level since 1963. A series of support by the U.S. government policy to promote the housing market, the U.S. real estate market over the past few months appears rare "Indian summer", but with the government purchase up to 8,000 U.S. dollars in stimulus tax rebate policy to terminate in April 30, the U.S. housing City then began to decline. The data show that the chain of new homes and existing homes are down there, but the data remains the same period last year to show growth is slowing down now, the U.S. housing market may have hit bottom or close to, but out of the woods probably also need a long time.

Intermittent period of the debt crisis in the euro area, macroeconomic data, the recent downturn as the main reason for suppressing copper, but not at this stage of the data should have too pessimistic, the economic recession and slow recovery is still a clear case of two boundaries short-term fluctuations in market confidence is the main reason for suppressing the market.

U.S. June Chicago PMI, fell for two consecutive months, 11 months in 50 above; China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index also dropped for two consecutive months, 16 months in 50 above. Data, fell against the market's confidence in the economic recovery, the manufacturing index slowed down and the 2008 financial crisis there is a significant difference. 2008, systemic risks, liquidity in Europe and the United States financial system problems, leading to the stock market, commodities and other capital markets drop waterfall; while the current industry downturn, in 2009 and achieved certain results occur after the structural adjustment, the domestic regulation of the real estate market overheating and excessive mobility of vigilance is a necessary measure to adjust the economic structure.

London stocks sustained outflow. London Stock Exchange (LME) copper stocks showed changes in the demand remains stable. LME copper stocks in February this year, has continued to decline, the recent decline has slowed, but by the situation remains unchanged. London stocks down from the 550,000 tons to 440,000 tons, still maintain a high level of cancellation of warehouse receipts, in May has been canceled warrants increment will be picking up speed now has 30,000 tons on top of inventory write-off warehouse receipts than in the 8 % near the outflow of inventory is expected to continue late show.

Inventory breakdown of data, inventory in Asia and Europe out clearly shows that demand remains strong replenishment, consumption good momentum; canceled warrants breakdown of view, the Asian region increased faster canceled warrants, followed by Europe, indicate areas in Asia is expected to continue out of stock situation, in general, no light reflected off-season demand for consumer is still continuing.

Copper prices are expected to benefit from weak dollar rebound. U.S. dollar in the past May, the dollar hit a 2009 the biggest monthly rise since, for two main reasons. First, the comparative advantage of U.S. economic recovery significantly, interest rates expected to gradually warming up. Second, Europe's debt crisis that plagued the market long-term risk aversion investor, as the current best hedge currencies, the dollar was pushed higher. Support the strengthening U.S. dollar for now are to play down the two reasons, first of all U.S. jobs, property, manufacturing and consumer confidence was weak, the market once the U.S. economy recession concern increases, so the Fed to postpone a rate hike the expected rapid warming. The status of the euro zone also improved. Factors supporting the dollar gradually lost their previous luster, the dollar hit a new high during the year fell after the fast line, 88-90 suppression was still significant. Suspension of the crisis in the euro zone after weak U.S. economic data, the dollar's continued weakness created, raised up quickly at the beginning of the hedge fund market, the rapid withdrawal of U.S. dollar, the dollar's weakness is another factor supporting strong copper prices, U.S. dollar is expected late downward trend will remain high, below the important support near the 82.

In the past six months, copper prices since the adjustment process, LME stocks from 55 million tons of high sustained a mild decline to 44 million tonnes, accounting for inventory write-off warehouse receipts in the year than are high, indicating demand is also a moderate recovery. Global PMI index fell slightly in June, did not appear affected by the significant downturn in the European debt crisis situation, showing that major economies are shocks to small; CFTC net long fund system ending a downward direction, the net there for 3 weeks long rise in the copper market short-term bullish factors in the gradual upper hand, but on the European debt crisis and the uncertainty of China's real estate market also will limit the height of the rally, short-term pressure level above 58,000 yuan Shanghai copper, eased back later ascribed more likely, an important support for copper prices in 48000-50000 yuan, to maintain high oscillation ideas.

Shanghai market price of construction steel continue to slightly loose

Yesterday the local market construction steel (3964, -12.00, -0.30%) fell again after the offer, the market is still no obvious improvement in the overall transaction. Morning opening, the Shanghai market price of construction steel continue to slightly loose. The market demand more light, downstream users are mostly small batches on demand procurement, maintenance of low volume.

Shanghai is now exempt from court HRB335 Φ16-25mm Rebar prices in the 3700-3710 main listing yuan / ton, such as Shanghai Bao Steel product prices in 3660 yuan / tons. 3 rebar, the Maanshan Iron & Steel, John Steel HRB400 Φ16-22mm rebar market price at 3,960 yuan mainstream / ton; Rizhao, Φ16-25mm 3 rebar steel selling price in 3710 yuan / ton. Wire (4005, -10.00, -0.25%) fell 10-20 against yesterday's respect Quote yuan / ton, now sunshine Φ6.5mm specifications mainstream high line sales price of 3960 yuan / ton, Φ8-10mm standard mainstream high-line sales prices 3940 yuan / ton.

Sales price today against yesterday's round the Shanghai market fell 30 yuan / ton, the rich are Q235 Φ16-25mm round bar steel selling price 3900 yuan / ton, Q235 Φ16-25mm round steel selling price of horses together 4,100 yuan / ton, Q235 Φ50mm Specifications Hangzhou Iron and Steel round steel selling price in 4120 yuan / ton.