Tuesday (July 13) the gold market opened 1194 U.S. dollars, up 1,217 U.S. dollars, the lowest 1194 U.S. dollars, to close at 1,210 U.S. dollars, up 16 cents, or 1.34%.
Fundamentals are relatively warm, the Greek government bonds auction smoothly, easing the Portuguese by Moody's downgrades the impact of eliminating the debt crisis, investors in some of the concerns in Europe, the euro against the U.S. dollar back on 1.27. Strong performance of the United States start to promote the market risk appetite, global stock markets soaring. U.S. May trade deficit unexpectedly expanded the dollar. Sharp drop in the dollar and the market, driven by optimism, opportunity to rebound to 1200 U.S. dollars of gold above, short-term continuation of the trend shock. Recent market news adverse effects on the dollar, the dollar declined sharply. Adverse factors as the gold was also a significant adjustment, but the recent trend in terms of gold, gold buying in the bottom of obvious, gold and the dollar again has shown a reverse trend. In the current market environment remains unchanged, the gold and the dollar's run trend will continue, the gold will be temporarily out of dollars into the shock period.
Technically, the current price of gold in 1200 U.S. dollars to the vicinity of shocks, but the market outlook is still on the downside risk. MACD indicator showed a downward trend has not been changed, with no obvious narrowing Brin, adjusted to 1170 U.S. dollars of gold is expected to better position nearby, then enter the high and volatile.
2010年7月19日星期一
Risk will improve the price of gold down Powei
Tuesday (July 6) the central bank of Australia in Asia and the domestic economy to make a positive Ping Gu Qian Jing, market risk tolerance will Shangsheng, another Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced the non-manufacturing report Fashankechen investors further up on the U.S. economy ease concerns about the dollar. Gold opened the day in 1207, up 1,213 U.S. dollars, the minimum 1189 U.S. dollars, near the end to close at 1192, the day down 15 dollars of gold, down 1.24%.
Fundamentals, the Australian central bank Tuesday kept its benchmark consecutive month interest rates unchanged, given the current market sentiment cautious, Australian central bank's current interest rate level is satisfactory, while the Australian central bank remains bullish on Asia and the domestic economic outlook. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index continues to fall, ABC consumer confidence index has also dropped, indicating the U.S. economy could face the future adjustment. The European banking sector stress testing results will be announced shortly, 目前 for investors to fully reveal the euro zone banking sector risks in the end how much, 这一 results may inspire the confidence of investors, the short term, will help enhance the risk of Yiyuan. Gold has been pre-hedge assets as the role of debt crisis in Europe is spreading rapidly up the process, reaching a record high 1,264 U.S. dollars / ounce, will upgrade the current risks in the short term will have a negative impact on the gold price, but will affect the medium-term gold bull market risk will require further observation of the correlation with the gold price.
Technically, the price of gold began to Powei down, fell to 1,200 dollars less, and established short-term downward trend in gold. From the graphical view, short-term support level is around 1180, the medium-term support at around 1160, shows that there is still some gold in the recent decline in space. Investors are advised not to do more short-term gold, but rather wait for the market to re-establish the unity of views on the gold assets. If the gold price down to 1160 U.S. dollars, the phenomenon of strong support, and can stabilize, investors buy gold safer here; if 1160 U.S. dollars below the support level is fast, gold down more space will be open, you can see low of 1,120 U.S. dollars / ounce in the vicinity.
Fundamentals, the Australian central bank Tuesday kept its benchmark consecutive month interest rates unchanged, given the current market sentiment cautious, Australian central bank's current interest rate level is satisfactory, while the Australian central bank remains bullish on Asia and the domestic economic outlook. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index continues to fall, ABC consumer confidence index has also dropped, indicating the U.S. economy could face the future adjustment. The European banking sector stress testing results will be announced shortly, 目前 for investors to fully reveal the euro zone banking sector risks in the end how much, 这一 results may inspire the confidence of investors, the short term, will help enhance the risk of Yiyuan. Gold has been pre-hedge assets as the role of debt crisis in Europe is spreading rapidly up the process, reaching a record high 1,264 U.S. dollars / ounce, will upgrade the current risks in the short term will have a negative impact on the gold price, but will affect the medium-term gold bull market risk will require further observation of the correlation with the gold price.
Technically, the price of gold began to Powei down, fell to 1,200 dollars less, and established short-term downward trend in gold. From the graphical view, short-term support level is around 1180, the medium-term support at around 1160, shows that there is still some gold in the recent decline in space. Investors are advised not to do more short-term gold, but rather wait for the market to re-establish the unity of views on the gold assets. If the gold price down to 1160 U.S. dollars, the phenomenon of strong support, and can stabilize, investors buy gold safer here; if 1160 U.S. dollars below the support level is fast, gold down more space will be open, you can see low of 1,120 U.S. dollars / ounce in the vicinity.
China looking into the SDR RMB
In the recently concluded Lujiazui Forum, Bank of China's financial markets, once more thank Secretary expressed the hope that one day the yuan to enter SDR SDR components, but can also consider making the yuan instead of the dollar as the reserve currency countries This will solve the problem of imbalance in the international financial system.
However, Xie was also recognized more, to achieve the balance of the international financial system will not be easy, time-consuming for a long time. But he is convinced that economic growth as the world center of gravity shifting from the west to the East, the emerging market countries 的 currency 会 in the future international monetary system play an increasingly important role, dollars or euro the international monetary system can not solve all the problems.
Goldman Sachs said in a recent report that the U.S. share of global GDP, the largest, but the share of global exports and China is in fact almost the same. Only because this is not renminbi freely convertible currency, the IMF can not be added to the RMB in the SDR.
The report also speculated that if the weight of SDR based solely on exports, the composition of the SDR is expected for 2020: RMB, U.S. dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling. If the value of exports in 2009 calculated by the weight of SDR, its composition would be: RMB, USD, euro, yen, pound sterling.
But this is only a hypothetical but only because the weight in determining the SDR, the need Kaolv another important Biaozhun: each currency reserve assets Zai other IMF member countries Zonge Zhong importance. And as being unable to prevent the yuan low share in the global pattern of reserves, and therefore greater share of global reserves, before the role of China in the SDR will not increase dramatically.
However, Xie was also recognized more, to achieve the balance of the international financial system will not be easy, time-consuming for a long time. But he is convinced that economic growth as the world center of gravity shifting from the west to the East, the emerging market countries 的 currency 会 in the future international monetary system play an increasingly important role, dollars or euro the international monetary system can not solve all the problems.
Goldman Sachs said in a recent report that the U.S. share of global GDP, the largest, but the share of global exports and China is in fact almost the same. Only because this is not renminbi freely convertible currency, the IMF can not be added to the RMB in the SDR.
The report also speculated that if the weight of SDR based solely on exports, the composition of the SDR is expected for 2020: RMB, U.S. dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling. If the value of exports in 2009 calculated by the weight of SDR, its composition would be: RMB, USD, euro, yen, pound sterling.
But this is only a hypothetical but only because the weight in determining the SDR, the need Kaolv another important Biaozhun: each currency reserve assets Zai other IMF member countries Zonge Zhong importance. And as being unable to prevent the yuan low share in the global pattern of reserves, and therefore greater share of global reserves, before the role of China in the SDR will not increase dramatically.
SDR is the trend of RMB into
Kahn said that China's rapid economic development is to allow the yuan to enter the main driving force of SDR, but when talking about the yuan will be entering the ranks of the SDR basket of currencies, he said "the sooner the better." But he also stressed that the RMB exchange rate and the real market price before the realization of free-floating yuan is still difficult to go into a basket of currencies.
Kahn's comments come as no doubt the reform of the IMF, he had once been expected to push the reform with the IMF, China and other Asian emerging market countries in the IMF's role, the right will be increased accordingly. "I will have more reasons to support the inclusion of other currencies in the SDR, the renminbi will be a starting point."
Kahn also talked about the day of resumption of foreign exchange reform, he believes that because the RMB is still undervalued, I believe that the reform on the situation will naturally change. He said the appreciation of the renminbi in China's interest, but can not solve global trade and financial imbalances.
Relevant information, SDR is a supra-national reserve assets of the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and pound to a basket of currencies such as the composition, is an IMF member assigned to the right of use of funds. At present, SDR in U.S. dollars accounted for 44%, 34% euro, yen and sterling 11%, respectively.
Kahn's comments come as no doubt the reform of the IMF, he had once been expected to push the reform with the IMF, China and other Asian emerging market countries in the IMF's role, the right will be increased accordingly. "I will have more reasons to support the inclusion of other currencies in the SDR, the renminbi will be a starting point."
Kahn also talked about the day of resumption of foreign exchange reform, he believes that because the RMB is still undervalued, I believe that the reform on the situation will naturally change. He said the appreciation of the renminbi in China's interest, but can not solve global trade and financial imbalances.
Relevant information, SDR is a supra-national reserve assets of the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and pound to a basket of currencies such as the composition, is an IMF member assigned to the right of use of funds. At present, SDR in U.S. dollars accounted for 44%, 34% euro, yen and sterling 11%, respectively.
Factors affecting price movements of gold
70 years before the 20th century, gold prices were decided by national governments or central banks, international gold prices stable. The early 70s, the U.S. dollar price of gold is no longer directly linked to the market price of gold gradually, changes in factors affecting the price of gold increasing, specifically, can be divided into the following areas:
1. Supply factors:
(1) the stock of gold on earth: the world that there are about 137,400 tons of gold, while on the groundstock of gold is still about 2% per year growth rate.
(2) the demand and supply: the annual supply of gold is around 4,200 tons, the new output of gold each year accounted for 62% of annual supply.
(3) the cost of a new gold mining: gold mining around the average total cost of just under 260 U.S. dollars / ounce. Since the development of mining technology, gold development costs over the past 20 years, decline.
(4) gold-producing country's political, military and economic situation changes: in these countries, any political, military unrest no doubt will have a direct impact on the quantity of gold produced in the country, thereby affecting the world's gold supply.
(5) central bank selling of gold: the Central Bank is the world's largest holder of gold in 1969 to 36,458 tons of official gold reserves, accounting for all the surface gold stock was 42.6%, and by 1998, official gold reserves of approximately 34,000 tons, accounting for all the gold mining stock of 24.1%. Calculated at current production capacity, which is equivalent to 13 years of world gold mine output. As the main use of gold reserves by a significant asset for the production of jewelry a gradual change of metal materials, or to improve its balance of payments, or to inhibit the international price of gold, so, 30 years, the central bank gold reserves both in absolute terms and relative number of greatly on the decline, the decline in the number of major stock sell-off leaning on the gold market gold reserves. For example, the Bank of England's massive sell-off, the Swiss Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund gold reserves to be prepared to reduce the recent decline in the international gold market, the main reason for gold.
2. Demand factors: demand for gold and gold is directly related purposes.
(1) the actual demand for gold (jewelry, industrial, etc.) changes.
In general, world economic development speed determines the overall Xu Qiu Le gold, such as in microelectronics field, increasingly used to protect the gold Zuo Wei Ceng; in the field of medical Yiji construction Zhuang Shi Deng, Jinguankeji of Jinbushide gold Tidai Pin Buduan appear, but the gold metal for its special nature still increasing its demand.
In some areas due to local factors have a significant impact on gold demand. As has always been a great demand for gold jewelry in India and Southeast Asian countries due to financial crisis, since 1997, gold imports have fallen sharply, according to the World Gold Council data show that Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea the gold demand fell by 71 %, 28%, 10% and 9%.
According to statistics, China's per capita gold consumption is only 0.2 grams, and compared to the world's largest gold consumer, there is a big gap. India's per capita gold consumption is 0.85 grams, equivalent to China's per capita gold consumption more than 4 times. From China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than India. Therefore, China has a very large potential consumer of gold, the outlook is very impressive.
(2) preservation needs.
Central Bank gold reserves has been used for prevention of domestic inflation, an important means of regulating the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly in the inflation situation, to achieve the purpose of preservation. The trend in the economic downturn, because gold is more than monetary assets, insurance, lead to increased demand for gold, gold prices rose. For example: three dollars in the Second World War crisis, the U.S. balance of payments deficit becoming a serious problem, countries hold a substantial increase in the dollar, the market value of the dollar's confidence, investors rush to buy a lot of gold, a direct result of the Bretton Woods system of bankruptcy . 1987, because of depreciation of the dollar, the U.S. deficit increased instability in the Middle East, also have prompted the international price of gold surged.
(3) speculative demand.
Speculators in accordance with international and domestic situation, using the gold market gold price volatility, combined with the gold futures market trading system, a large number of "short selling" or "cover" the gold, gold demand artificially create a false impression. In the gold market, down nearly every large hedge fund with short-term borrowing gold and selling in the spot gold market in COMEX gold futures to build the large number of short positions. In July 1999 the price of gold fell to 20-year low, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data showing speculative short positions in COMEX close to 900 million ounces (300 tons). When the trigger a lot of stop-loss selling, the gold price fall of the Foundation took the opportunity to cover profit, a slight rebound when the gold from the manufacturers selling to hedge long-term suppression of gold prices to rise further, while giving new opportunities fund re-establishment of short selling positions when the price of gold formed a decline are falling pattern. Purcell R & D center of high gold and silver high-Gold, said: "Now the price movements of gold market is not entirely decided by market supply and demand for simple, nor by the central banks in the meantime a simple game, in which speculative factors on the impact of the price also has a large proportion. "
1. Supply factors:
(1) the stock of gold on earth: the world that there are about 137,400 tons of gold, while on the groundstock of gold is still about 2% per year growth rate.
(2) the demand and supply: the annual supply of gold is around 4,200 tons, the new output of gold each year accounted for 62% of annual supply.
(3) the cost of a new gold mining: gold mining around the average total cost of just under 260 U.S. dollars / ounce. Since the development of mining technology, gold development costs over the past 20 years, decline.
(4) gold-producing country's political, military and economic situation changes: in these countries, any political, military unrest no doubt will have a direct impact on the quantity of gold produced in the country, thereby affecting the world's gold supply.
(5) central bank selling of gold: the Central Bank is the world's largest holder of gold in 1969 to 36,458 tons of official gold reserves, accounting for all the surface gold stock was 42.6%, and by 1998, official gold reserves of approximately 34,000 tons, accounting for all the gold mining stock of 24.1%. Calculated at current production capacity, which is equivalent to 13 years of world gold mine output. As the main use of gold reserves by a significant asset for the production of jewelry a gradual change of metal materials, or to improve its balance of payments, or to inhibit the international price of gold, so, 30 years, the central bank gold reserves both in absolute terms and relative number of greatly on the decline, the decline in the number of major stock sell-off leaning on the gold market gold reserves. For example, the Bank of England's massive sell-off, the Swiss Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund gold reserves to be prepared to reduce the recent decline in the international gold market, the main reason for gold.
2. Demand factors: demand for gold and gold is directly related purposes.
(1) the actual demand for gold (jewelry, industrial, etc.) changes.
In general, world economic development speed determines the overall Xu Qiu Le gold, such as in microelectronics field, increasingly used to protect the gold Zuo Wei Ceng; in the field of medical Yiji construction Zhuang Shi Deng, Jinguankeji of Jinbushide gold Tidai Pin Buduan appear, but the gold metal for its special nature still increasing its demand.
In some areas due to local factors have a significant impact on gold demand. As has always been a great demand for gold jewelry in India and Southeast Asian countries due to financial crisis, since 1997, gold imports have fallen sharply, according to the World Gold Council data show that Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea the gold demand fell by 71 %, 28%, 10% and 9%.
According to statistics, China's per capita gold consumption is only 0.2 grams, and compared to the world's largest gold consumer, there is a big gap. India's per capita gold consumption is 0.85 grams, equivalent to China's per capita gold consumption more than 4 times. From China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than India. Therefore, China has a very large potential consumer of gold, the outlook is very impressive.
(2) preservation needs.
Central Bank gold reserves has been used for prevention of domestic inflation, an important means of regulating the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly in the inflation situation, to achieve the purpose of preservation. The trend in the economic downturn, because gold is more than monetary assets, insurance, lead to increased demand for gold, gold prices rose. For example: three dollars in the Second World War crisis, the U.S. balance of payments deficit becoming a serious problem, countries hold a substantial increase in the dollar, the market value of the dollar's confidence, investors rush to buy a lot of gold, a direct result of the Bretton Woods system of bankruptcy . 1987, because of depreciation of the dollar, the U.S. deficit increased instability in the Middle East, also have prompted the international price of gold surged.
(3) speculative demand.
Speculators in accordance with international and domestic situation, using the gold market gold price volatility, combined with the gold futures market trading system, a large number of "short selling" or "cover" the gold, gold demand artificially create a false impression. In the gold market, down nearly every large hedge fund with short-term borrowing gold and selling in the spot gold market in COMEX gold futures to build the large number of short positions. In July 1999 the price of gold fell to 20-year low, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data showing speculative short positions in COMEX close to 900 million ounces (300 tons). When the trigger a lot of stop-loss selling, the gold price fall of the Foundation took the opportunity to cover profit, a slight rebound when the gold from the manufacturers selling to hedge long-term suppression of gold prices to rise further, while giving new opportunities fund re-establishment of short selling positions when the price of gold formed a decline are falling pattern. Purcell R & D center of high gold and silver high-Gold, said: "Now the price movements of gold market is not entirely decided by market supply and demand for simple, nor by the central banks in the meantime a simple game, in which speculative factors on the impact of the price also has a large proportion. "
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