Xinhua Xinhua in Hong Kong on July 18 Morgan Stanley China's economic growth is forecast to exceed 10% of the consumer price index (CPI) rose in July peak, the peak of about 3.5% -3.6%, total annual CPI increase of about 3%.
Wang Qing, chief economist for Greater China of Morgan Stanley said here, they forecast the Chinese economy this year, more optimistic.
Wang recent interview with reporters, said the second quarter of China's economic growth slowed 1.6 percentage points year on year to 10.3%, not more than the bank expected early next year, growth slowed and reduced effects of the policy and last year, "the former low after the high "base about the growth. He expects economic growth will continue to slow down in the second half, three quarters of about 10%, 9% in the fourth quarter or less, the annual GDP growth rate still exceeds 10%.
Wang said the economic slowdown is not important, the key is whether the speed and can withstand the expected range. He believes that China's economy since the third quarter, the momentum may be slowing faster than last year because "after the former low-high" base year, but also to Europe and the United States slowdown in economic growth and the impact of property regulation to the construction industry and other Shiti economy.
As inflation expectations diminished, Wang said the central bank raise interest rates less likely, throughout the year by 7.5 trillion yuan of credit continues to set the scale and pace of implementation; the same time he also said that if the economy slows more than expected, the current economic operating conditions can be fine-tuned to provide space for policy.
Famous economist of the State Council Development Research Center, Ba Shusong, deputy director of Institute of Finance, 17, said from the National Bureau of Statistics data released last week to see "the year CPI at 3% of the goal can be expected."
He was on the 17th night in the Overseas Education College of Shanghai Jiaotong University to do "economic recovery in the sustainable development strategy" made the remarks during talks.
Ba Shusong said the first half from the National Bureau of Statistics data shows that overall economic growth is very obvious, especially in the strong-than-expected export figures.
Ba Shusong said that the rate of decline in prices and industry data are somewhat unexpected. He believes that such a situation there are three main factors. First, in June a large number of vegetables and fruits market, causing prices of vegetables and fruit prices dropped sharply chain, causing food prices. Second, a significant reduction in the international market prices transmitted to domestic markets. Third, economic restructuring, many enterprises have overcapacity and "pressure stocks" action.
"From the price of view, short-term drop does not mean there is no pressure." Ba Shusong view, the long-term factors perspective, future resource, environmental protection of Shuishou policy Tiaozheng, labor costs and wage rate of increase in international Zijin lower costs and relatively liquid sufficient environment as agricultural products historically low, "which require high degree of attention. "
National Bureau of Statistics on July 15 released in June and the first half of the macroeconomic data shows that in June this year, CPI increased 2.9% year on year; June PPI up by 6.4%.
For the real estate market, Ba Shusong that the new "State 10" by the contractionary effects take time to appear. His own forecast in the fourth quarter to first quarter of next year, will increase the supply of real estate.
Ba Shusong said earlier from the bank from a "stress test" results, as well as major banks to strictly implement the proportion of 35% down payment, so that "real estate price adjustment is unlikely to put pressure on the banking industry."
"Of course, there are also real estate adjustment 'dilemma' problem." Ba Shusong said that if the real estate industry, sharp adjustments will make the upstream and downstream industry restructuring; not adjusted, then the policy credibility can not guarantee and can not "win the trust of the people. "
Ba Shusong said the adjustment process in the real estate industries, with the decline in land prices, real estate market, price signals can re-enter the market "take in", plus room to speed up the supply of protection, which can in a certain extent, "hedge" for the real estate industry due to the risk adjustment.
For the "second exchange reform," Ba Shusong that after Bank of China announced a further push forward the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, which means that the yuan dollar peg system out completely, "This is a very important signal" .
Ba Shusong said the yuan is not pegged to the dollar so tight, and strengthen the present "a basket of currencies," RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, this is only "the first step." The second step will be to consider expanding the yuan's fluctuation. The third step was the announcement of "a basket of currencies" index, "This is 'exchange reform' of the medium-term objectives."
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