Monthly credit "soft landing"

August 11, the PBC released "in July financial statistics report" shows that in July new loans to 532.8 billion yuan RMB, an increase of 163.7 billion yuan, from the previous month (in June reached 603 billion yuan of new loans) decreased by 12%. The amount was slightly lower than market expectations.

Market forecast in July after new loans ranges from 500 to 700 billion yuan, the general predictive value of 600 billion yuan or so, basically the same in June of 603.4 billion yuan. M2 of the prediction interval in the 17.9 to 19.2%, 18.5% median forecast. A bank industry to "International Finance News" reporter laments: "I never thought in July forecast of new loans will be hanging in the next interval along, we believe that in July the original credit would be more relaxed."

Political commissar of the Industrial Bank senior economist Lu told, "International Finance News" interview, said: "The current supply of credit relative to economic demand, seemed tight, some businesses this may cause future problems in the financial chain. "He said new loans in July is not over, and the M2 and M1 growth over the previous year also, a very significant decrease in the micro-economy cooling of demand for capital, which on the other hand there is obvious evidence of an economic slowdown trend.

Bank of Communications, Center for Financial Research, Dr E Yongjian analysis, steady decline in July new loans and window guidance to regulators, government financing platform and real estate loan demand related to the decrease of class. New month loans fell from more substantive point of view, the real economy down the overall credit demand.

Some analysts believe that in order to launch pre-intensive situation judged, 8-9 The credit limit or fell below the level of 500 billion yuan. Thus the second half of 3 trillion yuan, 7.5 trillion yuan to complete the year the credit is not difficult to achieve goals. "Stable amount of credit to ease inflationary pressures, but also ensure that the regional economy, emerging industries, and other economic incentives point the funds required. Of course, M1, M2 money supply growth will continue down the chain."

However, Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities are reminded that in many banks and businesses do not last very much from the state of monetary policy in the feet and, in fact, the theme of this year's monetary policy is to return to normal, moderate liberal, is different from Last year, it should not be alarmist claims that the current credit tightening.

Lu political commissar also forecast that the credit volume and tempo will not change. Although the CPI is likely to continue to new highs, but the years may no longer raise interest rates; statutory deposit reserve ratio adjustments in the direction of uncertainty, if the strength of international capital flows have not changed, turn of the year does not rule out the possibility of lower reserve ratio ; in high surplus, the exchange rate had continued to appreciate, but is expected to an annualized rate of less than 1.% to 1.5%.