The first half of this year, China's economy maintained a steady global recovery momentum, but the high cost of economic recovery, economic operation is not solid; economic growth is mainly driven by domestic investment, after the implementation of the stimulus increased the economic structural imbalances; exports Data performance is acceptable, but continuing is not optimistic.
September 2008, China's response to the crisis, the introduction of loose monetary policy. In the same year in November, the Government aims to expand domestic demand, "4 trillion economic stimulus package" and start the export tax rebates, VAT and other tax policy reforms. In the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, in 2009 China's economy achieved 8.7% growth, ahead of world economies. The first half of this year, China's economy is no longer a "second bottom," at risk, but there is also signs of overheating in the first quarter GDP growth up to 11.9%, imports and exports rose by 65% and 29%. Has released the latest data show that in May of domestic industrial added value increased 16.5%, 25.9% growth in fixed asset investment, retail sales of social consumer goods up 18.7%. This series of economic data in many ways close to or exceed the highest level, that has entered China's economy overheating warning area.
In our economy "thriving", domestic inflationary pressures gradually emerging, domestic demand and the irrational structure of foreign trade and environmental degradation will seriously affect the future sustainable economic development. So, to solve the policy side effect of irritating the second half of the government will be the focus of economic work. Looking in the second half, China's rapid economic growth will continue, but the structural adjustment is inevitable. "To prevent overheating, the gradual withdrawal" will be the second half of macroeconomic Aspect.
The second half of the State-led economic stimulus impact is still valid, the consumption, investment will continue, is expected to maintain the rapid growth of GDP, exports of restorative growth, contribution to the GDP, is expected to positive. However, the trend of economic growth, taking into account the low 2009, high economic growth after the characteristics of high economic growth this year in the first half of the second half of the growth rate will drop slightly throughout the year will show a high to the characteristics of low overall economic growth estimated at around 9.7%. Government may take "have to maintain pressure" strategy, "pressure" may be the credit and investment, "guarantee" may be consumption and export.
June 19, Bank of China advanced the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, which has been published in accordance with the foreign exchange market exchange rate floating range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and dynamic management and regulation. Market thus produced a strong appreciation of the renminbi expected, just two weeks, the appreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar by 0.6%. In fact, the RMB appreciation is not in line with our core interests and demands, it also exists the possibility of devaluation, especially in the European, American and Japanese exports shrinking market, floating exchange rate for RMB Bianzhi is normal. Of course, this depends on the country's foreign trade strategy, arrangements and foreign exchange reserves game between the United States.
Since last year, stimulated by the concentration of policies, China's stock market, real estate market bubble rapidly, the risk to accumulate a sharp rise in social conflicts. Since the end of 2008, China's stock market bounce up from the bottom up to 91.7%, the major cities housing prices rose more than 50%, thus with that asset class of most commodity prices there doubled up. The first half of this year, the Government has made the stock market and housing market adjustment policy arrangements. Currently, the stock market is to foam, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the average price-earnings ratio has been about 20 times, this process is expected to be completed in the third quarter; Real Estate in effect becoming apparent. Strict policy of the government under the control of real estate price correction is inevitable, start as early as July. The final marked the end of its over-expansion foam extrusion to achieve real estate "soft landing." Therefore, this adjustment will be a long process, non-six months.
In addition, the European debt crisis on the adverse impact of China will appear in the second half. Since April a sharp deterioration since the debt crisis of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy's debt problems surfaced, hit the global market confidence, the crisis has spread to the full risk. Although the euro zone countries was 750 billion euros by emergency rescue plan, temporary relief from the crisis, but in Greece and other countries to propose and implement a credible fiscal reform before the hard to restore market confidence.
G20 in the just-concluded summit, the United States to continue to ask China to pay for the financial crisis, but basically no longer possible. Currently, the policy has been too lenient to our sustained economic growth and social development has brought many problems, our government will be based on the domestic and stabilize the main phase out, "steady fiscal, tight money" will be the direction of economic policy choices. Fiscal policy will remain the basis for the continuity of the gradual contraction. Amend existing investment plans, control of new investment projects, troubleshoot local government financing platform and investment risk is proof. Will continue to tighten monetary policy. The first half of the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio three times, and guidance through the window requires commercial banks to control credit growth is expected in the second half are likely to raise interest rates, the real start stimulus "Exit." By then, M1, M2 growth will continue to fall, to contain asset bubbles and inflation.
Based on the above view, the unilateral increase in 2009 as pattern will be difficult to repeat, with wide swings will be the second half of the main tone of the domestic futures market, specific to the varieties may vary.
Stock index futures, in the third quarter as a starting point, "Monkey City" features will be obvious. The third quarter, the stock market will continue to explore the end of the next, but less likely to new lows, then to follow the pace of macroeconomic moving. As the second half will not have excellent macroeconomic performance in the second half surge after the stock market correction in low probability. Will be based on speculation stock market sector rotation. Accordingly, the stock index futures will have similar performance, cross-period arbitrage opportunities are also on the frequency appears. Therefore, seize the opportunity-band operation, choose effective arbitrage strategies will be key strategies in the second half of stock index futures.
Metals futures, the inventory adjustment will be the main theme, "oscillation" is the second half of the basic price. By the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and financial contraction, steel and nonferrous metals to the inventory of face. In the second half, the relative consumption of the metals market will enter the low season, influenced by the fundamentals. If the oversupply situation is not resolved, could not come up quotes. Gold and foreign exchange, from the global asset allocation perspective, gold, dollar and the renminbi is an effective hedge assets, worth holding. Agricultural futures, the need to look more carefully. Affected by natural disasters, domestic agricultural production will be affected to some extent. Speculative funds will focus on agricultural products is much higher than other varieties, soybean, sugar, wheat, oil, represented by a wave of agricultural products is expected to rally in the second half, but the upside is not. Energy and chemical futures, and macro fundamentals will be closely followed up and down may be a stalemate situation.
没有评论:
发表评论