Copper prices rebounded down under pressure from the focus

Copper to maintain the recent pattern of weak order, the global macroeconomic uncertainty is the main reason for restricting high copper prices rebounded. Since April, copper prices in the euro zone under the impact of the debt crisis out of a significant downturn in the market, the domestic Shanghai copper near the minimum dropping as 49,000 yuan, followed by a rebound in another encounter, the U.S. macro data between the two countries to slow down again around 50,000 yuan, under pressure from short-term market rally.


Recent macroeconomic data released by the United States, against market expectations for U.S. economic optimism. U.S. June consumer confidence index falling sharply, a change for 3 months prior to the rising trend, the real estate market, employment, automotive market downturn is the main reason causing the decline in consumer confidence; the United States in June the unemployment rate from last month 9.7% to 9.5%, which is the last year, the lowest level since July, but the June non-farm employment fell more than expected, is employed by the U.S. Census due to a large number of temporary workers, when the post removed, they appear large size of the unemployed, the U.S. job market is still an important part of the U.S. economy constraints.

Real estate market will enable the market pessimism, the United States in May into a house, all the sharp drop in new home sales, new home sales dropped to its lowest level since 1963. A series of support by the U.S. government policy to promote the housing market, the U.S. real estate market over the past few months appears rare "Indian summer", but with the government purchase up to 8,000 U.S. dollars in stimulus tax rebate policy to terminate in April 30, the U.S. housing City then began to decline. The data show that the chain of new homes and existing homes are down there, but the data remains the same period last year to show growth is slowing down now, the U.S. housing market may have hit bottom or close to, but out of the woods probably also need a long time.

Intermittent period of the debt crisis in the euro area, macroeconomic data, the recent downturn as the main reason for suppressing copper, but not at this stage of the data should have too pessimistic, the economic recession and slow recovery is still a clear case of two boundaries short-term fluctuations in market confidence is the main reason for suppressing the market.

U.S. June Chicago PMI, fell for two consecutive months, 11 months in 50 above; China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index also dropped for two consecutive months, 16 months in 50 above. Data, fell against the market's confidence in the economic recovery, the manufacturing index slowed down and the 2008 financial crisis there is a significant difference. 2008, systemic risks, liquidity in Europe and the United States financial system problems, leading to the stock market, commodities and other capital markets drop waterfall; while the current industry downturn, in 2009 and achieved certain results occur after the structural adjustment, the domestic regulation of the real estate market overheating and excessive mobility of vigilance is a necessary measure to adjust the economic structure.

London stocks sustained outflow. London Stock Exchange (LME) copper stocks showed changes in the demand remains stable. LME copper stocks in February this year, has continued to decline, the recent decline has slowed, but by the situation remains unchanged. London stocks down from the 550,000 tons to 440,000 tons, still maintain a high level of cancellation of warehouse receipts, in May has been canceled warrants increment will be picking up speed now has 30,000 tons on top of inventory write-off warehouse receipts than in the 8 % near the outflow of inventory is expected to continue late show.

Inventory breakdown of data, inventory in Asia and Europe out clearly shows that demand remains strong replenishment, consumption good momentum; canceled warrants breakdown of view, the Asian region increased faster canceled warrants, followed by Europe, indicate areas in Asia is expected to continue out of stock situation, in general, no light reflected off-season demand for consumer is still continuing.

Copper prices are expected to benefit from weak dollar rebound. U.S. dollar in the past May, the dollar hit a 2009 the biggest monthly rise since, for two main reasons. First, the comparative advantage of U.S. economic recovery significantly, interest rates expected to gradually warming up. Second, Europe's debt crisis that plagued the market long-term risk aversion investor, as the current best hedge currencies, the dollar was pushed higher. Support the strengthening U.S. dollar for now are to play down the two reasons, first of all U.S. jobs, property, manufacturing and consumer confidence was weak, the market once the U.S. economy recession concern increases, so the Fed to postpone a rate hike the expected rapid warming. The status of the euro zone also improved. Factors supporting the dollar gradually lost their previous luster, the dollar hit a new high during the year fell after the fast line, 88-90 suppression was still significant. Suspension of the crisis in the euro zone after weak U.S. economic data, the dollar's continued weakness created, raised up quickly at the beginning of the hedge fund market, the rapid withdrawal of U.S. dollar, the dollar's weakness is another factor supporting strong copper prices, U.S. dollar is expected late downward trend will remain high, below the important support near the 82.

In the past six months, copper prices since the adjustment process, LME stocks from 55 million tons of high sustained a mild decline to 44 million tonnes, accounting for inventory write-off warehouse receipts in the year than are high, indicating demand is also a moderate recovery. Global PMI index fell slightly in June, did not appear affected by the significant downturn in the European debt crisis situation, showing that major economies are shocks to small; CFTC net long fund system ending a downward direction, the net there for 3 weeks long rise in the copper market short-term bullish factors in the gradual upper hand, but on the European debt crisis and the uncertainty of China's real estate market also will limit the height of the rally, short-term pressure level above 58,000 yuan Shanghai copper, eased back later ascribed more likely, an important support for copper prices in 48000-50000 yuan, to maintain high oscillation ideas.